A-Level results U-turn: students to receive teacher-estimated grades

Gavin Williamson and Ofqual have repealed the use of an algorithm to calculate A-level and GCSE grades, opting instead for grades predicted by teachers.

Secretary of State for Education Gavin Williamson (Source: Flickr)

Less than a week after the release of A-level results, the Secretary of State for Education and the exams regulator Ofqual have announced that A-level and GCSE students will receive grades based upon their teachers’ estimations, rather than those calculated by an algorithm.

This U-turn comes amid mounting criticism over the use of the algorithm to calculate grades, which saw almost 40 per cent of teachers’ A-level predictions downgraded by one or more grades while only 2.2 per cent of teachers’ predictions were marked up. Both Scotland and Wales have already abandoned grades calculated by algorithms following complaints from students and moved similarly to teachers’ predictions for students, despite the fact that Nicola Sturgeon had previously called these predictions “not credible.”

According to Ofqual, the previous algorithm calculated grades using teachers’ predictions for students, based upon their past work in class and mock exam results, which were then standardised according to the schools’ past performance and the students’ prior attainment. However, this moderation process was not applied to teachers’ predicted grades when subjects were taught in small classes sizes — 15 students or fewer — which means that these classes generally received higher grades than classes studying the same subject in other schools. The recent announcement means that the standardisation process has now been withdrawn and students will instead receive the grades predicted by their teachers.

While the proportion of A* to C grades overall has increased by 2.4 per cent from the 2019-20 academic year, the exams regulator has faced accusations of classism as top grades calculated by the new algorithm have risen disproportionately in independent schools. The proportion of A and A* grades awarded rose by 4.7 per cent in private schools compared to 2 per cent, in comprehensive schools, and 1.2 and 0.3 per cent in grammar schools and sixth-form colleges, respectively.

The social mobility charity, upReach, has argued that several of the algorithm’s factors have particularly benefited independent schools. The reliance on schools’ past performance may have downgraded A-level results for exceptional students or particularly strong cohorts if their school’s historic performance had not been as strong. This could have penalised schools whose exam results have improved in recent years.

UpReach also identifies smaller class sizes at independent schools as a factor that could also have resulted in higher grades. As the moderation process was not applied to small subject cohorts, upReach claims that private school students were therefore less likely to be downgraded in certain “niche” classical subjects which are more commonly taught at independent schools than state schools. The charity estimates that “classical subjects” saw a 10.4 per cent increase in A and A* grades compared to 0.5 per cent in Psychology and 0.2 per cent in Sociology. In a statement to the Times Educational Supplement, Ofqual has rejected these claims, stating that it found “simply no evidence of systematic bias.”

In the Department for Education press release, Gavin Williamson states that this system “resulted in more inconsistency and unfairness than can be reasonably resolved through an appeals process.” He has also apologised for the disruption caused, stating that he is “sorry for the distress this has caused young people and their parents but [hopes] this announcement will now provide the certainty and reassurance they deserve.”

Before the reversal, there were fears that following the lead of Scotland and Wales could lead to higher grade inflation, as the proportion of A and A* grades saw an increase from last year despite the fact that nearly 40 per cent of teacher predictions were downgraded. These have been somewhat confirmed with the release of GCSE results today which were also affected by the U-turn; the proportion of 7, 8 and 9 grades has risen from 21.9 per cent last year to 27.6 per cent. The new teacher-assessed A-level grades have also been announced, as the proportion of A and A* grades awarded has risen from 27.9 per cent of algorithm calculated grades to 38 per cent of teacher estimated predictions.

This U-turn will have consequences for the Higher Education sector as A-level grades rise and some university courses receive more eligible students than places available. The government intends to remove student number controls to cope with the increased influx of students, and some universities are considering asking students to defer until the 2021-22 academic year in order to deal with the high demand. Durham University has announced that offer-holders who choose to defer for a year will receive a bursary and guaranteed student accommodation, while UCL has welcomed the government’s U-turn. UCL states that it will “accept all students who meet the terms of their original offer on all programmes that do not have an externally-determined cap (such as medicine).”