Armenia and Azerbaijan on the brink of war

The decades-long conflict over the self-proclaimed independent territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in the Caucasus has escalated.

Azerbaijani warriors during the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1992. Photo by Ilgar Jafarov on Wikimedia Commons

In the last month, the long-standing territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region claimed nearly 200 casualties. Azerbaijan threatened to attack the atomic power station in Armenia, while the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called for the liberation of Armenian land. The Nagorno-Karabakh war had resumed, as both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the self-proclaimed independent state of Nagorno-Karabakh imposed martial law and military mobilization on September 27. Rising tensions in the region in conjunction with the possible involvement of larger players such as Turkey and Russia threaten to escalate the situation in the South Caucasus further. Though a temporary truce was reached starting October 10, fighting at the border has already renewed.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a region in Azerbaijan with an Armenian ethnic majority. It proclaimed independence in 1991 as the Republic of Artsakh (also called the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh). The conflict began in the 1990s, when ethnic Armenian separatists seized Nagorno-Karabakh and installed a self-proclaimed state. By 1994 the war ended with a ceasefire agreement and around 30 000 lives lost. The state is autonomous, and Azerbaijan has not exercised any authority over the region. Nevertheless, it is not recognized by anyone, including Armenia. 

Source: Wikimedia Commons

The tensions began in 1988 with the nationalist Karabakh movement which advocated the transfer of the region from Azerbaijani to Armenian jurisdiction. The fighting between ethnic Armenians (backed by the Armenian government) and Azerbaijan escalated into a fully waged war by 1992. Two years later, the Armenian separatists drove the Azerbaijani army away. Both sides agreed to the ceasefire and peace negotiations began, supervised by the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk group led by the United States, France and Russia. Nevertheless, the last big effort to instigate lasting peace was in 2010 and since then the negotiations gradually declined. 

Without any significant breakthrough in the peace negotiations, the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan was marked by ongoing sporadic clashes, which in 2016 escalated in the so-called “four-day war”. The clash claimed 110 victims in total and the major city Stepanakert came under fire. However, neither state announced martial law as they did in September this year. 

After the 2018 Velvet Revolution in Armenia, when the current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan took office, expectations were lifted by both Armenia and Azerbaijan that any concessions would be made. Pashinyan and his government seemed promising for the establishment of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This attitude was used by populists and right-wing advocates within Armenia to portray Pashinyan as a traitor “selling the national interest for Western money”. Expectations grew higher since in 2019 the conflict claimed only one victim. The former Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan, Elmar Mammadyarov, also seemed optimistic about achieving peace, but he resigned when fire opened this July. 

This year the negotiations were neglected due to Armenian domestic affairs. In spring the Armenian separatist government in Nagorno-Karabakh held elections. It was viewed as a provocation by Azerbaijan and it led to the incident  of July 2020 when both countries accused each other of starting the shelling on the borders. Similarly, each side denies culpability. The fighting prompted thousands of Azerbaijanis to demonstrate in favour of war with Armenia. The clash in mid-July took 16 lives. Since then, the Azerbaijani president Ilham Alyiev has been calling for the liberation of Nagoro-Karabakh from Armenia. 

An important dimension of the conflict is the possibility of involvement of international players. The most interested seem to be Turkey and Russia, who already support two opposing sides in Syria and Libya. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed Yerevan for the flare-up and promised full support for Baku. He described Armenia as the biggest obstacle to peace in the South Caucasus. Turkey and Azerbaijan share close-knit cultural ties considering their Turkic heritage and the shared Muslim religion. Not only have there been reports of Turkey selling weapons and machinery, including drones, to Azerbaijan, but also information about joint military exercises between the troops of the two countries. Moreover, Turkey and Armenia have a long history of tensions. For example, Turkey officially refused to recognize the Armenian genocide of 1915 as well as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict itself. On top of this, the two countries have shut their shared borders and have no diplomatic relations. Therefore, Pashinyan also called for the Great Powers to prevent Turkey from entering the conflict and backing up Azerbaijan. 

On the other hand, President of Russia Vladimir Putin had urged for an immediate ceasefire and proposed to lead the peace negotiations. Russia is in an ambiguous position because it maintains stable diplomatic and economic relations with each side of the conflict. Nonetheless, Armenia hosts one of Russia’s military bases and  is  part of  the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union. Both Armenian and Azerbaijani media report equivocal versions of Putin’s communication with their respective representatives. In addition to Russia, states such as Germany, France and Italy, as well as the EU, called for an immediate ceasefire. Iran also offered to mediate the diplomatic relations. 

The scale of the conflict has been growing. There have been reports of helicopters being shot down, as well as the use of drones and missile strikes. Moreover, the major city Stepanakert in Nagoro-Karabakh was struck. Although the casualties report by both Armenia and Azerbaijan are controversial, both claim that civilians are among the recent victims. 

Diplomatic relations were put on hold until last week. On October 10, a limited ceasefire agreement was achieved under the mediation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Despite the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan accusing each other of derailing the peace-deal, one of the four terms of the agreement consists of commitment to the peace negotiations in the Minsk Group. The combat was paused on humanitarian grounds long enough to exchange war prisoners and collect bodies from the battlefield. However, clashes on the border and attacks on cities continue.