DeSantis 2024: Florida’s Governor’s Victory Increases His Odds in the Presidential Race

Governor Ron DeSantis delivering remarks at a Turning Point USA conference in Tampa, Florida Courtesy of Gage Skidmore

“Not just a red wave, but a red tsunami.” That was Ted Cruz’s prediction for the midterm elections. While others were more cautious in their predictions, everyone seemed to agree that we would experience a red wave of Republicans clearly winning the elections. This unexpectedly did not happen as despite winning control of the House, Republicans failed to flip over the Senate and if there were gains in other races they were all much smaller than expected. 

All but one. In Florida Ron DeSantis won reelection 59% to 40%, despite 4 years ago winning by only 0.4%.

The victory definitely strengthens DeSantis’ bid for presidency. Florida's governor has been mentioned as the potential Republican nominee for 2024 before. While he is yet to officially announce his candidacy, he definitely will be more inclined to do so after his landslide victory. Though popularity in a state does not always translate to nationwide popularity (Sarah Palin, anyone?), the circumstances of the election raised the national profile of DeSantis almost immediately. He was the only big Republican winner amid many disappointments. Because of that, Republicans might see the governor of Florida as the option especially considering that many of the Trump-endorsed candidates lost. Though the former president still hopes to win the Republican candidacy for the third time (the defeats did not change his decision to officially declare his candidacy just after the elections), weak performance of “his” candidates definitely does not help him. Many Republican voters, both at the top and at the bottom of the party hierarchy may see this as a sign that the Trump era is coming to the end and rather than bet on a candidate who already once lost the election, might wish to find someone new. And who would not be a better choice than a man who exceeded expectations when the rest disappointed.

This can be already seen in the polls. Before the midterms, Trump was clearly in the lead with the support of almost 50% among the Republican voters, whereas DeSantis had much lower support of around 20%. This November elections already changed that. According to a recent YouGov poll, DeSantis is winning with Trump 42-35%. DeSantis of course has still a long way to the nomination and even longer to the presidency. The Trump-DeSantis debates will definitely change the opinion of a number of voters. The result of those is hard to predict. DeSantis is seen by conservative outlets such as the National Review as a more competent leader, although he seems to lack Trump’s charisma. However, let’s say that recent midterms are the start of a successful campaign which will result in DeSantis becoming not only the Republican nominee but also the 46th President of the United States. What would such an outcome mean for the Americans and the World? DeSantis, despite being currently the main contender together with Trump inside the GOP, is definitely not his ideological opposite. They share strong views on such issues as abortion, LGBT rights, gun control, and immigration (being against all of those). He recently transported (under what seemed to be a false pretence) a group of asylum seekers to Martha’s Vineyard in the Democratic Massachusetts. On the environment, he recently signed House Bill 919 prohibiting local councils from banning any source of electricity, restricting the power of local governments to promote renewable sources of energy. As a result, while his persona seems to be different from that of Trump, policies promoted by DeSantis, if he becomes President will not be much different. This shows that we won’t see a big ideological fight in the primaries but a fight about who can implement the ideology more effectively and is more electable. The former is debatable, but the governor of Florida seems to be currently winning the latter.

The landslide victory of DeSantis also means we will perceive Florida differently. Up until recently, the Sunshine State was seen as the definitive swing state, best exemplified in Bush becoming the president in 2000 thanks to the 537 votes difference over Al Gore in Florida. This rule was broken already in 2016 when Trump beat Biden. However, now only it seems clear that a Democratic Florida is a longshot and in order to beat either Trump or especially DeSantis, Democrats will need to look for victory in other races such as the neighborhood Georgia.