'Europe’s last dictator' faces calls to quit after controversial election victory
Unprecedented protests in Belarus threaten to put an end to decades-long rule of its president.
"March of the national flag," October 10, 2015. Photography by Marco Fieber on Flickr
“The Monster Cockroach” is a 1923 children’s poem written by Russian-born Korney Chukovsky, telling the story of an anthropomorphic insect-turned-dictator, whose brief reign of terror over other animals came to an end as he was eaten by a sparrow. Previously interpreted as an allusion to Stalin’s dictatorship, the symbol of Tarakan (cockroach) has recently gained relevance among circles of the rapidly growing Belarusian protest movement, as a nickname for the country’s president since 1994, Alexander Lukashenko. Mass street demonstrations, which broke out in August, in the aftermath of Lukashenko’s allegedly fraudulent presidential re-election, have reached a scale without precedent in the history of post-Soviet Belarus, prompting assumptions that Chukovsky’s prophecy might soon come true.
In fact, over the course of his presidency, spanning 26 years, Lukashenko has acquired multiple nicknames, with some affectionately calling him Batka (dad), while others refer to him as “Europe’s last dictator.” The latter is, among other things, inspired by the lack of a serious challenger to the presidential post in the previous five elections, only one of which international monitors deemed free and fair.
Lukashenko ran for his sixth term in office on August 9, in the midst of a pre-existing economic crisis worsened by the outbreak of coronavirus, which he referred to as “psychosis” and proposed to overcome by drinking vodka and driving a tractor. According to Belarus’ Ministry of Health, as of August 12, there were 69,102 officially confirmed Covid-19 cases in the country, with 595 registered deaths. Despite the rapidly growing number of cases, Belarus never imposed a lockdown of any kind.
Among other factors, the economic and human cost of the outbreak has prompted an increase in the number of opposition candidates, the majority of whom were eventually barred from running for the presidential post by the electoral commission. This includes former banker Viktor Babariko, who was arrested in June and is now criminally prosecuted on the premise of tax evasion and money laundering, as well as blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky – initiator of the “cockroach” metaphor, who organised dozens of protests in the run-up to the election.
Those who were not jailed, were exiled, such as Valery Tsepkalo – founder of the Belarusian Silicon Valley analogue, Belarus Hi-Tech Park, who escaped to neighbouring Russia under alleged threats of prosecution.
By election day, the only opposition candidate remaining was Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Sergei’s wife who continued her husband’s campaign after his arrest in May. Despite not having previous intentions to enter politics, the former stay-at-home mum gained momentum as she became a “symbol of change,” seen by opposition members as the only credible alternative to Lukashenko’s regime. Having united forces with Mr Tsepkalo’s wife Veronika and Babariko’s campaign manager Maria Kolesnikova, the three women drew rallies with thousands of supporters across Belarus.
Nevertheless, Lukashenko claimed a landslide victory, taking 80.23 per cent of the vote according to the Central Election Commission of Belarus. Immediately after, the country erupted in protests of an unprecedented scale, reaching a high point on August 16, with tens of thousands of anti-government demonstrators turning out in Minsk and other cities across Belarus. It marked the eighth consecutive day of street demonstrations in the country, with protesters demanding a rerun of the presidential election they claim was rigged in favour of Lukashenko.
Sunday protests differed from those that took place earlier during the week not only in size – some estimates put the number of attendees at over 200,000 – but also in the lack of police involved. As protestors held balloons and draped themselves in traditional red and white flags - a symbol of opposition to Lukashenko’s regime - the celebratory atmosphere stood in stark contrast to the violent suppression of demonstrations that took place in previous days, leaving at least three people dead, many injured and over 6,000 arrested.
The European Union is set to enforce sanctions on those responsible for brutal police force employed against opposition supporters, while the UK government issued a statement by Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab: “The world has watched with horror at the violence used by the Belarusian authorities to suppress the peaceful protests that followed this fraudulent presidential election.” Neither the EU nor the UK accept the election outcome as legitimate.
Upon release, protestors who have been detained and spent days in custody reported beatings that, according to Amnesty International, suggested "widespread torture." Police reportedly targeted journalists, with at least 55 reporters detained according to the Belarusian Journalists Association. Belarus has also seen major disruptions in Internet service, which many viewed as the government’s attempt to hinder organisation and media coverage of protests.
Neighbouring countries, like Lithuania, fear that the crisis in Belarus might prompt the belligerent Russia to intervene with military forces. In a Sunday phone call with Lukashenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin affirmed that Russia is ready to provide Belarus with support within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) comprising former Soviet states.
The offer, however, was described as “reluctant and conditional” by Mark Galeotti, an honorary professor at the School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University College London: “…under the terms of the CSTO agreement, it only is available in the case of external aggression. I think this was just a rhetorical gesture, and not the prelude to any real support.”
In a speech he gave on Sunday, Lukashenko, who has previously stated that there will be “no new election until you kill me,” said that he was ready to transfer powers under a new constitution in the future. “His strategy appears…to be to wait out the opposition, promising new elections after talks and a referendum on constitutional change, knowing that he can drag those out as long as he wants,” Galeotti explained in emailed comments.
As the protest movement is gradually joined by industrial plant workers – the backbone of Lukashenko’s Soviet-style economic plan – as well as members of police force and state television, experts are increasingly convinced that Lukashenko’s days as the president are numbered. “My sense is that Lukashenko is finished, but it's much harder to know precisely how the endgame works… The key question is defection and despair within the elite - at what point do they decide their best interests are served by turning against Batka rather than supporting him?” said Galeotti.