Experts warn universities’ £2.5bn loss will cost UK economy £6bn and 60,000 jobs
Livvie Hall reports on how the COVID-19 pandemic could devastate the UK higher education sector.
A report released today from UCU predicts a collapse in student numbers following the COVID-19 pandemic that will cost UK universities £2.5bn in tuition fees and teaching grant income in 2020-21. It warns that 60,000 jobs are at risk and, without action, the wider economic fallout will be over £6bn. As many as 91 institutions could soon be in critical financial positions.
With the estimated decline in UK students costing only £612 million, the vast majority of the £2.5bn ‘black hole’ in university funding will result from fewer high fee-paying international students. Universities with larger international intakes, like UCL, are expected to be hit hardest, losing as many as 121,000 international first-year students this year alone. A drop in the highest-paying non-EU students will be most damaging, accounting for £1.51bn of the total predicted loss.
This 35-page report by London Economics comes just a week after the Office for Budget Responsibility warned that the education sector would be worst-hit by the pandemic and ensuing recession, estimating a staggering 90% output reduction over the second quarter.
UCU is calling for immediate government intervention to protect the jobs at risk and safeguard university funding from the damages of the coronavirus crisis. Jo Grady, UCU general secretary, said: “This alarming report shows that university staff and students are now staring over the edge of a cliff and desperately need the government to step in and protect the sector [...] Our world-renowned universities are doing crucial work now as we hunt for a vaccine and will be vital for our recovery both nationally and in towns and cities across the UK.”
Rebecca Long-Bailey, shadow education secretary, echoed the call for government action: “The Government must step in to support universities and mitigate their funding shortfall to prevent the significant economic impact this report predicts.”
Meanwhile, the director of the Higher Education Policy Institute, Nick Hillman, expressed concern that the report’s projections are overly pessimistic: “I do not want to underestimate the severe impact of COVID-19 on higher education. But, given the diversity of our higher education sector, we must ask if it is right for modelling to assume every single institution will face a recruitment crisis across the board.”
Speaking to Pi News, Students’ Union UCL Postgraduate Students’ Officer, Jim Onyemenam acknowledged this is “an acutely challenging time for Higher Education” and that the sector would be “planning for multiple different scenarios - both medium and long-term - in response to COVID-19.”
Onyemenam assured that the Union’s “number one priority is to do the right thing for our members, and to make sure the views of our members are represented and acted upon in all of UCL’s decisions related to COVID-19”.
Confronted with this predicted £2.5bn loss, greater competition for student intake, unwavering pressure from recent UCU strike action and student demands for tuition fee and rent compensation, UK universities are set to struggle over the coming months.