General Election Remains Unlikely despite Calls from Opposition Leaders

Photo Courtesy: EU Political Report

In the immediate aftermath of Liz Truss’s resignation as Prime Minister, in a record low of 44 days in office, leader of the Labour Party Keir Starmer, MP Ed Davey, and leader of the Scottish National Party Nicola Sturgeon have all called for a general election. Sturgeon has described an election as “a democratic necessity” while Starmer has called it a “a fresh start” for the UK public.

Although the last two Prime Ministers - Theresa May and Boris Johnson - triggered snap elections in 2017 and 2019, the chances of a general election now are increasingly slim. This is especially considering the current economic and political situation in the country.

The process for a snap election can be initiated in two ways. Other than the Prime Minister calling on an election, as was the case during the tenure of May and Johnson, a snap election may occur if in the House of Commons the opposition submits a vote of no-confidence in the Government. And provided the opposition holds a majority of the Chambers’ 650 seat and the vote passes a general election can take place. However, at present this is highly improbable given that the Conservatives currently hold 357 seats in Parliament. Therefore, in order for such a motion to be implemented, at least a faction of the Conservative party would have to vote for it and do so against their own Government. In light of this situation, it is noteworthy to mention that recent government polls show the Conservatives are suffering a huge defeat while Labour is projected to win by a margin of 33% in a potential election.

The other hypothetical scenario that could see UK citizens heading to the polls sooner than expected involves England's monarch and is, probably, even more implausible. According to the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, for the first time since 1924, the head of the monarchy could theoretically dissolve Parliament, but only at the PM’s request.

In lieu of a general election, the new leader of the country will be chosen through a Tory leadership contest, albeit one much shorter than the one that took place this summer. The next PM is expected to be announced by 28 October following an online vote opened for all the approximately 172,000 Tory Party members. Although the Conservative Party does not publish details about membership demographics, recent reports show that 63 per cent of its members are men, 75% voted Leave, and they are on average age 57 years old.