Image Credits: Steffen Prößdorf via Wikimedia Commons
Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli could mathematically win the 2026 World Drivers Championship (WDC) in Austin this weekend, a feat that would make him the youngest world champion in the sport’s history. To do this, he must win, while George Russell must finish lower than eighth and Lewis Hamilton lower than fourth. Antonelli has had an exceptional season and is, of course, an exceptional driver. But he has also been exceptionally lucky.
Luck and race results have always gone hand in hand. In the second half of last season, McLaren’s Oscar Piastri had a bout of bad luck that proved fatal to his championship lead, while his teammate, Lando Norris, saw his fortunes turn, resulting in his 2025 WDC victory. In the first half, though, it was the other way around: Norris did not finish in either Canada or the Netherlands. Across the season, both drivers crashed out once, both were disqualified once, and Norris also suffered an engine failure. The bad luck – and the good – felt evenly shared. The same cannot be said for this year.
From perfectly timed safety cars in Japan and Madrid, to McLaren and Red Bull mistakes in Austria, Miami and, again, Madrid, Antonelli has had fortune on his side for most of this season. Even his home victory from P19 in Monza, a brilliant drive regardless of luck, owed something to the red flag and restart, resulting in Antonelli gaining four positions in a single move that would not have been possible without Charles Leclerc’s crash. Where he has not been actively lucky, it has instead been the misfortune of his teammate and championship rival that has helped build his now 102-point lead. Russell has had three DNFs, all due to car unreliability, and was unable to take advantage of the safety car windows in both Japan and Singapore. F1 itself estimated that Russell lost 56 potential points from car reliability issues alone.
Of course, it is not all black and white. There have been moments of luck the other way around: Russell had a phenomenal run in Baku, whereas Antonelli did not finish in Barcelona. After all, a championship cannot be won on luck alone. Antonelli is a brilliant driver, especially for someone who is only 20 (and what are the rest of us doing with our lives?), and he has handled the high-pressure situation with a maturity beyond his years. Yet, given the great deal of fortune he has received, it is difficult not to question whether such a record-breaking championship would be entirely deserved.
World champions are expected to go on to dominate the sport for years to come. Yet, Antonelli’s season thus far has more closely resembled Jacques Villeneuve’s 1997 season, in which good fortune played a role in many of Villeneuve’s wins, than Sebastian Vettel’s title-winning 2010 season.
Will Antonelli follow Villeneuve’s path of fringe contention rather than domination after his title triumph, or emulate Vettel’s era of success in the early 2010s? Given that we have yet to see Antonelli truly tested in a title race, we cannot know for sure. For the time being, all eyes remain firmly fixed on Austin.