Looking ahead to the new year in politics

Source: Wikimedia Commons

Benjy Goodwin examines what’s to come in 2019 for politics.

The last few years in politics have been, to say the least, tumultuous. It seems that we finish every year remarking on how extraordinary it was, and begin the next saying it will be even more important than the last. 2019 is, I’m afraid, no exception. From Brexit to elections across the world, there is a lot to digest. This post will cover events in British politics. Tomorrow: the world.

Starting Monday 7th January, MPs are back in parliament and all the chaos resumes. It is hard to think back to the pre-Gatwick drone era, but remember: all hell was breaking lose. Theresa May had to pull the vote on her Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, and fight off a no confidence move from her backbenchers. The problems haven’t gone away, and Theresa May will be hoping that going back to their constituencies over Christmas will have made some of her MPs calm down a little.

In any case, it is all happening. As it stands, the vote on the Withdrawal Agreement is set to take place on either the 15th or the 16th of January. So will it pass? Of course, the answer is that no one can know. I’ve staked my reputation on her eventually passing the deal, so I will of course say that it will. The fact remains that many Tory MPs and the DUP, whose votes she relies on for her majority, have serious problems with the Irish backstop.

Now, May won’t be able to renegotiate the deal itself. The EU has repeatedly ruled this out and it is hard to see what actually could be changed. Instead, it is possible that she could get some sort of “add on” to the deal which would seek to clarify that the backstop could only be a temporary measure, and perhaps even float the possibility of the UK revoking its Withdrawal Agreement. The Government will be hoping for this, rather than some more piecemeal verbal assurances from EU heads of government and Jean-Claude Juncker; actions speak louder than words, especially in court. This “updated” agreement could be the final straw that sees it passing through the House of Commons. We know it’ll take a while; Downing Street sources have been suggesting that they will be prepared to hold multiple votes if the agreement is not initially passed. So, we really could be in for a chaotic few weeks.

Of course, if the agreement is not passed, a whole range of possibilities arise. If there is to be a “People’s Vote”, we will know in weeks rather than months. As I have set out before, though, it is not easy to see how we get there. Any second referendum would have to come via primary legislation – that is, Theresa May (or some other PM) would have to introduce a referendum bill. And though she is partial to a massive U-turn, this would be a rather risky one, and it would involve her doing something that she fundamentally disagrees with.

There could be a General Election (some people, terrifyingly, have predicted two). This would likely come about by Jeremy Corbyn bringing about a no confidence motion in the government and winning the backing of the DUP (or some sort of self-destructive Tory rebel group) to oust her. Winning this vote would not lead to an election immediately, as parliament would then have 14 days to try to form a new government, which could very plausibly be the Tories with a new leader. So, it is not without risk for Corbyn. May could, of course, bring forward a vote on a new election, which would require a two-thirds majority in the house. However, May’s previous experience at election time makes this seem highly unwise.

We could leave the EU with no deal. It is not entirely unfeasible for the House of Commons to spend enough time arguing that we get too close to March 29th to avert it. Many MPs have made serious arguments that “no deal” is a myth, and that there is no majority for this option. The problem is, of course, that no deal is the default scenario – it will automatically happen on March 29th unless it is replaced by something else. Many have called for Article 50 to be extended, but this is unlikely as only the government, not parliament, can do so. Futhermore, legislation would need to be passed, as the March 29thexit date is written into UK law. So no deal really could happen, in a sense, by accident. If it does, it is difficult to describe the levels of chaos that will occur as we tear up 45 years’ worth of arrangements with no replacement. Essentially, under most scenarios, there would be chaos. Remember, though, that Theresa May cannot be forced out by her MPs until December. They could make life a nightmare for her in an attempt to force her out, although some have been trying that for a year and a half now with no success, and she’s already survived that bout.

Should the withdrawal phase of Brexit go ahead as planned, Britain will leave the European Union on March 29th. At this point, the government will have a bit more time to try to address literally any other issue, which will make a pleasant change. Look out for the Spending Review, which will be the test of May’s declaration in October that “austerity is over”. Don’t expect the government to completely splash the cash, but they will want to mark at least a rhetorical break with the economics of the past eight years.

There is also speculation about a major cabinet reshuffle, in which we could see the backs of key figures such as Liam Fox and Phillip Hammond. As ever with Theresa May, every time such a shake-up has been briefed, it has been hot air, but it is likely that Theresa May will seek a re-evaluation of the usual suspects once we have left the European Union. One thing is for sure: British politics will remain as chaotic this year as it has been for the past few years. Whatever happens, the battle over Brexit will rage on, and the Tories will continue to struggle with their fragile majority.

The USA: Presidential Elections, Democrats flood the House, trouble for Trump?

It may seem like just yesterday that the US was in election-mania over the mid-terms. It was, pretty much. In America, elections never really end. Now that the mid-terms are over, the 2020 presidential race begins in earnest.

Democrats hoping to take on Trump will begin declaring the candidacies after months of speculation and question-dodging. It is probably going to be a crowded field. We have already had Elizabeth Warren, a likely frontrunner, announce her ‘exploratory committee’ – the usual precursor to a formal announcement (I would recommend watching the highlights from her rather odd Instagram Live). Pay attention to Bernie Sanders to see if he’s visiting any of the key early states like Iowa and New Hampshire for signs of his intentions. Others known to be toying with the idea are former Vice President Joe Biden and the new darling of the party, Beto O’Rourke. Expect declarations from vocal members of Congress such as Kamala Harris and Cory Booker.

We may also find out whether or not any Republicans will try to challenge Trump for the nomination. This doesn’t happen often, only in controversial times. But these are certainly them: I wouldn’t rule it out.

We will also get a feel for the Democrats’ tactics. Now that they control the House of Representatives, and with many new, young, left-wing members, they will be able to cause more trouble for Trump. With veteran Nancy Pelosi back in the Speaker’s chair, they will be sure to use every trick in the book to make Trump’s life uncomfortable, particularly with their refusal to fund the border wall.

There could also be some big moments in the Mueller Investigation, which might find that there was collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. The people over at Vox, who know far more about this than me, explain it in more detail. I think this is probably what would be required for impeachment measures to be brought. Whilst many Democrats are getting over-excited, Pelosi has made clear she will not seek this without clear evidence. I wouldn’t expect an impeachment attempt.

Europe: Elections, elections, elections

In May, voters from the remaining 27 EU member states will go to the polls to elect new MEPs. With the UK’s 73 seats being divided up amongst other members, mainstream groups such as the EPP, ALDE and PES will be vying to take seats currently held by the Tories and UKIP.

It would be far too difficult to try to explain all of the internal political battles across the bloc, but there are some key things to look out for: will the Liberals be able to pull-off a Macron-style campaign? Can the Social Democrats retain or improve their position given their decline in most EU states? Will the populist far-right surge? And how big a battle will there be for the role of Commission President? The centre-right EPP looks set to dominate the new parliament, and following the informal spitzenkandidat process, their candidate Manfred Weber should succeed Juncker. As with everything in the EU, nothing is simple, and many feel that this process will not be respected, due to opposition from EU heads of government and from Juncker. Because the process is informal, the EU Council is under no obligation nominate the spitzenkandidat. This is definitely one to watch.

There will also be presidential and parliamentary elections across Europe, including in Belgium, Estonia, Denmark, Moldova and Switzerland. Look out for Ukraine, which looks set to elect the populist Yulia Tymoshenko as president; Portugal, whose minority socialist government looks set to consolidate their power, and Greece. Remember 2015: Greece elected a youthful socialist, Alexis Tsipras – determined to improve Greece’s position with its international creditors. His party, Syriza, have failed – and they look set to be wiped out and replaced by the centre-right.

Emmanuel Macron will also have an interesting year. This year is probably quite important for the president to see if he can achieve these reforms and reverse his position in the polls. It seems likely, but in the streets, the question is different: whether the gilets jaunes movement will fizzle out or gain momentum.

Also pay close attention to anti-government protests elsewhere in Europe. The ongoing anti-government protests in Serbia show no sign of dying down, whilst recent demonstrations in Hungary could grow.

Further afield: Putin, Bolsonaro, even more elections

There are elections all over the world, from the Americas, across Asia and Africa. Justin Trudeau will seek to defend his majority in the Canadian Parliament this October. His Liberal Party is neck-and-neck in the polls with the rival Conservatives.

Australia – a country that makes even Brits feel grateful for the calm and collected nature of their MPs – will also go to the polls. Will the incumbent centre-right coalition be punished for their recent regicide?

Israel will also see elections to its parliament, the Knesset. Netanyahu’s fragile coalition has crumbled, but as it stands is likely to remain the dominant force. With a ludicrously complicated politics, following this one is not for the faint-hearted.

It is also a year to watch some of the worlds strongmen. The newly inaugurated far-right president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, will be someone to watch. We will see how damaging he really is for Brazil’s minority groups and for the Amazon rainforest.

Vladimir Putin will as ever be one to watch. With Armenian PM Nikol Pashinian gaining a majority in parliament in December, it will be interesting to see how far he distances himself from Moscow in the pursuit of democratic reform, and how Putin responds to this. Expect allegations of Russian interference in elections across Europe, further flare-ups in the conflict with Ukraine as Putin seeks to take control of the Sea of Azov, and other potential interference with his neighbours. In what could be a very big year in politics, Putin is likely to be one to shape it.