Oscar nominations: who should win vs who will win?
Olivia Olphin and Alice Nelson predict some of the winners at this year's Academy Awards.
Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite
Olivia
Who should win: Joker
This movie has it all for me. The directing and cinematography are intense and intimate, the acting is sublime, and the editing, soundtrack, costume and makeup really work together to deliver a moody, threatening atmosphere and a beautifully rounded film. I think after the Academy snubbed The Dark Knight in 2009 by not even nominating it for Best Picture, the time is now for them to finally accept that comic book movies are here to stay. Todd Phillips has proved they can be intellectually and visually stimulating, as well as action packed and entertaining.
Who will win: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Although I normally enjoy Tarantino films, I didn’t particularly enjoy Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. However, I know there are some diehard Tarantino fans out there who loved it. The star power of Pitt and DiCaprio really helps propel this movie towards the glittering gold of the Oscars. Tarantino is known for his intricate scripts and plots and has often been awarded an Oscar for screenwriting, and the writing is as vibrant as ever. Personally, I felt the movie was extremely problematic, especially the film’s treatment of women, particularly through its subversion and devaluation of the Sharon Tate murder case, as well as its treatment of Bruce Lee. But it was extremely popular this year, though it seems like a hankering for the nostalgia of old, white, male Hollywood more than anything else.
Alice
Who should win: Little Women or Parasite
I didn’t even dislike the 1994 take, but Little Women was the remake we all did not know how much we needed. Greta Gerwig had clearly put every ounce of her being into making this perfect, and really comes into her own directorially. Plus — Florence Pugh. Need I say more. I also would be pleasantly surprised if Marriage Story won. Fun fact for you all: Noah Baumbuch is in a long term relationship with Greta Gerwig, Little Women’s director, and Marriage Story partly takes inspiration from his divorce from Jennifer Jason Leigh, whom he left for her. So a win for Marriage Story is still kind of a win for Gerwig. Maybe? Notable snubs for me are Lulu Wang’s sublime The Farewell and Jordan Peele’s follow up to Get Out, Us. It would be fantastic if Parasite won Best Picture too. It is striking how in previous years foreign language films are never seriously considered outside of Best International Picture, regardless of how strong they are — Cuarón’s Roma, for example.
Who will win: One of the loud ones. I would not mind any except for Quentin Tortellini’s sub-par offering
Joker
Source: Warner Bros
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Olivia
Who should win: Joaquin Phoenix
Who will win: Joaquin Phoenix
I feel the stars have aligned for Joaquin. His performance in Joker is equal parts creepy and relatable, but wholly magnificent. Having been nominated three times before, it seems the timing is right for him to win. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t clinch this one after winning the Golden Globe.
Threat: Adam Driver
Alice
Who should win: Joaquin Phoenix
I don’t have strong opinions about this but I would agree with Liv that this is a once in a career performance for Joaquin Phoenix; I think he would be a worthy winner. I do love me some Adam Driver, and I think he is deserving of an Oscar, though maybe not for this role. Fingers crossed he doesn’t do a Leo. I also think Banderas shone in Almodovor’s latest offering, so would be happy to see him win.
Who will win: Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Olivia
Who should win: Saoirse Ronan
I have been a Saoirse Ronan fan for years now. In my opinion she is one of the most interesting and vibrant actors of this generation. Her portrayal of Jo March is determined, strong-willed, and hilarious. But she has many more Oscar-worthy roles ahead of her, I am sure.
Who will win: Renee Zellweger
Although having already won an Oscar, the general consensus is that Renee will take this one. Her performance as Judy Garland is nuanced and enigmatic, and this is the kind of role that Hollywood loves. Hollywood loves anything about itself or its stars, and Garland is one of the most iconic.
Alice
Who should win: Saoirse Ronan or Cynthia Erivo
I agree with Liv; Saoirse Ronan is immensely talented and shines in every role she takes on. I think Jo March was a perfect role for her. Seeing as she was first nominated at the age of 12, I think it is about time the Academy acknowledged her talent. At only 25, she makes me feel inadequate in my life’s achievements; what higher compliment can I give? Cynthia Erivo and the film Harriet deserve at least one Oscar, especially as it is undoubtable that the inferior Tortellini will walk away with a handful. It is outrageous, but somehow not surprising, that Erivo is the only actor of colour nominated. It is astounding that the Academy have decided to ignore so many amazing films with characters of colour from this year — Queen & Slim, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, Us, The Farewell, just to name a few. They gave themselves a big pat on the back for giving Moonlight Best Picture but seem to think that was their get out (no pun intended) for the next half a millennium. Alas. I think all these would be worthy winners except Charlize Theron, as, regardless of her performance, Bombshell does not deserve any Oscars.
Who will win: Probably Renee
Notable Snubs: Lupita Nyong’o (Us), and Awkwafina (The Farewell)
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Source: image.net
Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Olivia
Who should win: Brad Pitt
Although I had problems with the film, Brad Pitt is all the things you would want him to be in this film. He is enigmatic, sexy and downright hilarious.
Who will win: Brad Pitt
It is hard to believe Brad Pitt has never won a “performance” or “acting” Oscar, having only scooped up one for producing 12 Years a Slave. Although I would argue this is not the best role of his career, see Fight Club or Se7en, I believe just as Leonardo Di Caprio won for his whole career and not just The Revenant, Pitt will win this year as a culmination of all his previous work.
Alice
Who should win: Hmm
I am unsure, especially as A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is yet to be released in the UK, and from trailers and critical consensus, Hanks’s performance seems to be classic Oscar material. Brad Pitt’s performance and his chemistry with Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood was excellent in an otherwise messy film, so he would be a deserving winner. Scorsese’s The Irishman was a major event in the film world this past year, so I would not be surprised if Pesci or Pacino wins either.
Who will win: Maybe Brad? I’m not that excited for this category
Marriage Story
Source: image.net
Supporting Actress
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Olivia
Who should win: Laura Dern or Florence Pugh
Both of these ladies have more talent in their little finger than I have in my whole body. Florence Pugh somehow made the infamous Amy March relatable, and in doing so showed a mainstream audience just how fantastic she is. If you like her performance in Little Women then check out Lady Macbeth or Fighting With My Family to see the range of her acting skills. However, it is Florence’s first nomination and I think it should, and will go to Laura Dern.
Who will win: Laura Dern
It is surprising Laura Dern has never won an Oscar. Her portrayal of a cutthroat yet sympathetic lawyer in Marriage Story is the kind of diversity we all want to see when it comes to female roles. It would also be lovely to see Marriage Story get an Oscar as the acting was fantastic.
Alice
Who should win: Florence Pugh
Please direct all your questions to my Florence Pugh fanpage.
Who will win: Florence Pugh
A girl can dream. Fingers crossed for Laura Dern too; it’s hard to believe with her immense career she has never won an Oscar.
The Irishman
Source: image.net
Director
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Olivia
Who should win: Greta Gerwig… oh wait...
In an appalling but not surprising turn there are (yet again) no female directing or cinematography nominees. Greta Gerwig’s subtle and enriching portrayal of authentic young women in Little Women deserved an Oscar nomination, and perhaps even a win. It seems Hollywood thinks the only type of directing that is “pure cinema” are brutal or high-octane shots, with movies about men made by men.
Who will win: Either Sam Mendes or Todd Phillips
I’d have to give the edge to Todd Phillips as Sam Mendes’s film is closer in style to Christopher Nolan’s recent Dunkirk, while Phillips has managed to bring comic book movies into the realm of “Auteur” film-making.
Alice
Who should win: GRETA
One of the major snubs of the year, even more confusing for me as Gerwig was nominated for this award for her debut, Lady Bird. I enjoyed Lady Bird, but Little Women demonstrated such a development in directorial voice and cinematic style. I really can’t get my head around it, especially as Tarantino (sorry I keep bashing him kids, I swear I do like his other films) seems to have been nominated once again just because, well, he’s Tarantino. Jordan Peele was equally nominated for this category for his debut Get Out, but his fantastic second picture Us has been completely overlooked. The next best thing to a surprise Greta win would be for Bong Joon Ho to win for his momentous Parasite. South Korean cinema needs to be taken seriously, and not just in the Best International Picture category (which, incidentally, I would argue contains the most interesting films to look out for each year).
Who will win: One of Hollywood’s favourites, Tarantino or Scorsese
Adapted Screenplay
Joker, Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
The Irishman, Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
Olivia
Who should win: Greta Gerwig, Little Women
I genuinely believe that Greta Gerwig captured the essence of Louisa May Alcott’s book and transformed it into a sumptuous and beautiful film. The film is equal parts funny and heartbreaking, and that is down to how sensitively and cleverly Gerwig adapted the original source material.
Who will win: Please, if there is a God, give it to Little Women
Alice
Who should win: C’mon, give Greta something
I would also love love love for Gerwig to win. She spent years perfecting her extremely sensitive adaptation, lifting dialogue directly from book to screen. Her interweaving of the childhood and adult time periods of the books was a masterstroke that proved her intense care and investment in the film.
Who will win: Little Women. Fingers crossed
Knives Out
Source: image.net
Original Screenplay
1917, Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Parasite, Bong Joon-ho, Jin Won Han
Knives Out, Rian Johnson
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
Olivia
Who should win: Marriage Story or Parasite
Marriage story is no doubt an “actors'” script. It is wordy and complicated, with monologues and strong aggressive dialogue. But that is what I loved about it; it really allowed its characters to shine and for the audience to get a glimpse into their relationship.
Who will win: Parasite
Parasite should be recognised for its script. Although I fear that because it’s a foreign language film it won't be. I fear it will meet the same end as Roma and win the best foreign language film and not the best feature or original screenplay because of the “language barrier”. I think we should all take heed of what Director Bong Joon Ho has said recently, that “once you overcome the one-inch tall barrier of subtitles, you will be introduced to so many more amazing films.”
Alice
Who should win: Knives Out, Marriage Story or Parasite
Knives Out was fantastic — a stylish, hilarious, and deeply satisfying murder mystery for the 21st century. So well constructed, with razor sharp dialogue, it would be a well deserving win. I also love Noah Baumbach’s subtle indie cinema offering. I have been a fan of his writing and directing style since the mumblecore classic Frances Ha. I would be happy with a Parasite win, as it deserves at least one Oscar.
Who will win: Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
I would imagine Quentin Tortellini, as despite this, in my opinion, lacking the intense zing, creativity and cleverness of his previous works, the majority of the film world didn’t seem to notice.
The Lighthouse
Source: image.net
Cinematography
1917, Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Robert Richardson
The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto
Joker, Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke
Olivia
Who should win: I think Joker, 1917, or The Lighthouse
All these films have original and new ways of approaching cinematography to create a vivid world within their respective films. I would be very happy if any of them won, but maybe give it to the Lighthouse. We love to support “indie” or “arthouse” films with smaller budgets!
Who will win: 1917
Although some have called it a gimmick, the “one-shot” in this film is a stroke of cinematographic mastery. Difficult to achieve and hard to edit, this film achieves a long-take throughout which matches the journeying aspect of the film. Although not the first to do it, this is impressive and something the Academy loves. See Emmanuel Lubezki’s Oscar for Birdman (2015).
Alice
Who should win: The Lighthouse
A truly original, arthouse, black and white, weird ass film in funky 1.19:1 aspect ratio. This deserves recognition.
Who will win: 1917
Roger Deakins’ cinematography would be a worthy winner. The intensely crafted long take deeply satisfied my film loving soul. The cinematography was the most impressive facet of 1917, so would prefer its recognition to be in this category rather than in Best Picture.
Best International Feature Film
Les Miserables, Ladj Ly
Pain and Glory, Pedro Almodovar
Parasite, Bong Joon Ho
Corpus Christi, Jan Komasa
Honeyland, Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov
Olivia
Who should win: Parasite
Who will win: Parasite
If Parasite doesn’t win this it will be a tragedy. Although I hope this is not the only Oscar they give it. Let’s start moving “foreign” language films into the mainstream. Another strong contender is Pedro Almodovar’s Pain and Glory.
Alice
Who should win: Parasite or Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Where is Portrait of a Lady on Fire? This wasn’t even the Academy’s fault — France chose their national nomination as Les Miserables. This category does not even scratch the surface of the wealth of stellar foreign language film released this year. I’ll be honest with you all — if you actually want to know which films to look out for, check out the awards given by film festivals earlier in the year. Cannes and Toronto Film Festivals are great at actually awarding good films.
Who will win: Parasite
A deserving winner, although I would argue it is strong enough to be a serious contender, and not just a token nomination, in the Best Picture category.
Original Score
Marriage Story, Randy Newman
1917, Thomas Newman
Little Women, Alexandre Desplat
Joker, Hildur Guðnadóttir
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams
Olivia
Who should win: Joker
Who will win: Joker
This score really struck me when I was watching the film. The low bassy cello notes brought out perfectly how discordant and unnatural the city was for Arthur Fleck. Although it is not a score you would go back to listen to in your spare time, it works perfectly in the moment of the film. I think Hildur is someone to watch out for and I think she should win, hands down.
Alice
Who should win: Any would be deserving winners
Who will win: John Williams?
He is the most nominated person alive, with 52 nominations and 5 wins, although the last win was in 1994. Other than those statistics, I have no idea which way the Academy will vote.
Harriet
Source: image.net
Original Song
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen 2
“Stand Up,” Harriet
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman
Olivia
Who should win: “Stand Up”, Harriet
If you haven’t heard Cynthia Erivo sing, go and educate yourself. Coming from a musical-theatre background, starring in the Broadway revival of The Colour Purple, Erivo has strong form. This song really hits you where it needs to, her vocals soar, and the lyrics are poignant and uplifting, such as “Can you hear freedom calling?” Hopefully I can hear an Oscar calling Cynthia, because you deserve it.
Who will win: “Into the Unknown”, Frozen 2
With Frozen 2 being snubbed in the best animation category, this is its only chance at an Oscar. Although the song is catchy, it is no “Let It Go”, but Disney has strong form when it comes to the Oscars. Although I think the Panic at the Disco cover on the end credits is the best version of this song.
Alice
Who should win: “Stand Up”, Harriet
This film deserves more recognition than I expect it will get from the Academy. Fingers crossed for a good night for Erivo.
Who will win: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again”, Rocketman
I would guess Rocketman, as my Mum said she liked it. As good a reason as any, and more reason than the Academy seems to have behind 90% of its decisions.