Pi Exclusive: Former Vote Leave chief remains ‘optimistic’ of a trade deal despite Boris’ no-deal threat

Former Chief Executive of Vote Leave, Matthew Elliott, gives Pi Media his thoughts on UK-EU trade talks as Boris Johnson calls on Britain to “prepare to embrace” a no-deal Brexit.

Source: Wikimedia Commons

In an exclusive for Pi Media, the man that led the Vote Leave campaign to victory in 2016, Matthew Elliott, has said he is “still optimistic” a deal will be signed between the United Kingdom and European Union by early November.

This comes after the prime minister called on the country to “prepare to embrace” a departure from the EU on World Trade Organisation terms unless “there’s some fundamental change of approach” from Brussels’ negotiators. 

Boris Johnson claimed that “we will prosper mightily as an independent free trading nation, controlling our own borders, our fisheries, and setting our own laws”, irrespective of a trade deal being agreed.

The president of the EU commission, Ursula von der Leyen, reiterated that “the EU continues to work for a deal, but not at any price. As planned, our negotiation team will go to London next week to intensify these negotiations.”

But the UK’s Chief Negotiator, Lord David Frost, has reportedly informed Michel Barnier that he should not travel to next week’s scheduled trade talks in London unless he is willing to change his negotiating position.

Elliott, who was described by the Financial Times as “one of the most formidable political strategists in Westminster”, suggested that the announcements by Number 10 and the EU 27 are the “final theatrics” to an accord being agreed.

He added that: “the statement by Boris and David Frost to British audiences almost left the impression that the UK walked away, but the readout with Michel Barnier is slightly different.”

Nevertheless, Downing Street’s pivot to an Australian-style Brexit comes after the EU demanded that Britain concede on key sticking points, including fisheries, the level playing field, and the role of the European Court of Justice, at their annual autumn summit.

The founder of one of Tufton Street’s most influential pressure groups, the TaxPayers’ Alliance, then suggested that independent arbitration of disputes, an additional transition period on fisheries and state aid rules that copy those signed in the UK-Japan trade deal could ensure progress between London and Brussels.

On fisheries, the former LSE student argued that while the UK must take back control of its coastal waters, its elected parliamentarians “have the right to grant access to the EU if they wish, and they are accountable to voters for their decisions.” 

This would give Britain the power to determine a quota system of greater benefit to British fishermen, comparable to the power given to Norwegian and Icelandic governments to amend access to EU vessels. 

As a self-proclaimed classical liberal, Elliott has previously expressed some concerns over the implementation of state aid rules in a post-Brexit Britain. 

But as he penned in an article for the City AM, “we must have the power to chart our own course” and avoid “dynamic alignment” to the single market.

Yesterday, he went further and stressed that: “As a free marketeer, I am supportive of strong state aid and procurement rules… but I believe that the UK parliament must determine these.”

Despite Elliott’s optimism, the prime minister indicated that the conclusions made by the EU 27 at their autumn summit are incompatible with the Canada-style deal UK negotiators are seeking.

The prime minister has argued that Brussels wants “the continued ability to control our legislative freedom, our fisheries, in a way that is obviously unacceptable to an independent country.”

Boris Johnson then criticised the position of Barnier’s negotiating team and said the EU “have refused to negotiate seriously for the last few months”.

“I have concluded that we should get ready for January 1 with arrangements that are more like Australia’s based on simple principles of global free trade”, added the prime minister.

The European Union is far from united as to how to proceed with talks. Covid-19 had already caused splits between the so-called “frugal five” and Mediterranean states on how best to distribute financial support between the EU 27. 

Now it is France and Germany, the two more influential member states and the pair who agreed to the continent’s first form of post-war European integration through the coal and steel community, who appear to take contrasting positions.

German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, insisted that London and Brussels must be “ready to compromise” on the key sticking points.

Merkel even suggested that Berlin would consider accepting Britain’s divergence from the EU’s rulebook provided that Brussels can “react quickly” if the UK distorts competition.

But the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, is taking the most hardline stance in negotiations. 

Macron stated that the UK needed a deal far more than the EU and added that there should be no deal unless his compatriots in the fishing industry retain unfettered access to British waters.

Elliott suggested that Macron will feel pressure on returning to Paris with an accord acceptable to French fleets - especially given the president is up for re-election in 2022.  

He then proposed that a fisheries transition period of between five and 10 years might be a tolerable compromise for the French president and an effective way to unclog a key blockage to successful negotiations.

But Elliott also highlighted that the different positions, especially those of Germany and France, are a prime example of how “trying to read EU negotiations is like reading smoke signals in a storm”.

Nonetheless, Elliott emphasised he remains confident that a last-ditch deal will be struck.

British and European negotiators are due to hold a series of remote discussions via phone call next week.