President Bolsonaro’s popularity is on the rise amid Covid-19 pandemic

Whilst Brazil remains the second worst hit country by the Covid-19 pandemic, the introduction of a welfare programme has offset the president’s mismanagement of recent months.

Photo by Alan Santos/PR on Flickr

Earlier this year, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro repeatedly dismissed Covid-19 as a “little flu” and urged businesses to reopen, despite the rising number of cases in the country. As of September 30, Brazil has suffered 143,000 deaths attributed to the virus and has 4.7 million confirmed cases.

Nonetheless, in recent months, approval ratings for President Bolsonaro rose by 5 per cent, from 32 per cent in June to 37 per cent in August, according to Datafolha. Almost 50 per cent of those surveyed said they did not blame the president for the death toll.

Both Brazilian and international politicians have not hesitated to comment on President Bolsonaro’s management of the pandemic. The Brazilian Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta publicly defied Bolsonaro in a televised interview in April, urging Bolsonaro’s administration to present “a single, united line” on how to tackle the pandemic. Rodrigo Maia, president of Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies, wrote on Twitter, “The whole world is united against coronavirus, but in Brazil we have to fight the coronavirus and the virus of authoritarianism.” 

Thiago de Aragão, a political risk consultant, said that the president’s “outsider” appeal and the weakness of the  opposition party help explain the improvement in Bolsonaro´s approval ratings. “With politics being more and more discredited in society in general, his ‘non-engagement’ actually wins him points,” said Aragão.

Jair Bolsonaro greeting supporters at the Agribusiness tribute act to the President of the Republic on September 18. Photo by Alan Santos/PR on Flickr

One reason attributed to the president’s rise in popularity has been the launch of a state funded benefit scheme. On April 1, the Brazilian Federal Government began a welfare scheme, establishing “an emergency employment and employees’ income maintenance program and determines additional measures that may be adopted by companies during the Covid-19 pandemic.” In July, the programme had reached more than 30 million households, supplying them with an average monthly benefit of $163 per home. In August, Bolsonaro extended payments for low-income Brazilians hit by the “economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic” until the end of the year.

This is not the first time a Brazilian government has taken action to help its most vulnerable. In 2003, previous President Lula da Silva introduced the “Programa Bolsa Família" (Family Fund Programme). Under the scheme, low-income families receive cash transfers on various conditions, for example that they send their children to school or ensure they are properly vaccinated. Nonetheless, in June 2019, the Brazilian government began to limit the number of new beneficiaries and started cancelling payments to existing ones.

Octaviano Canuto, an executive director at the Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), spoke to Al Jazeera about how the Brazilian president's approval rating is at its highest since he took office. In the interview, Canuto described the Brazilian government handouts as “substantial”, as the monthly allowance was often more than these individuals normally earned.

Bolsonaro, in the process of establishing social aid, has sidelined the Brazilian Economic Minister Paulo Guedes. Known for favouring small government and free markets, Guedes has been seen to be “uneasy” about the spending provoked by the pandemic. Whilst giving a press conference on September 23, Guedes mentioned winding down emergency aid payments, only to be pulled away by other ministers. Speculation surrounding Guedes and his future in the Brazilian government unnerved markets, sending stocks and the currency into descent in August.

Bolsonaro’s campaign pledge to end corruption in Brazil was extremely attractive to the country’s populus. In his inauguration speech, he promised to “free the country from the yoke of corruption.” However, Bolsonaro and his family are currently battling corruption allegations. A former aide to the president’s son, Fabrício Queiroz, has suggested “the Bolsonaro family partook in a scheme known as rachadinha … [which] involves siphoning off taxpayer money by keeping ghost employees on payroll.” Cristiano Rodrigues, a political scientist at the Federal University of Minas Gerais state, said “the contrast between Bolsonaro’s words and his practices will be educational for voters – and [the corruption allegations] will erode his support base.” Despite these allegations of corruption, as well as large numbers of confirmed Covid-19 cases, Bolsonaro’s popularity is on the rise.

Meanwhile, Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, often referred to as AMLO, initially faced criticism for his handling of the pandemic. Whilst Bolsonaro is a former army captain of the hard right, López Obrador is a “would-be revolutionary” of the left. With more than 700,000 cases of Covid-19 and 76,000 deaths in Mexico during the pandemic, his approval rating dropped to its lowest point since he took office. Carlos Petersen, a political analyst with the New York-based Eurasia Group said that AMLO’s low ratings indicate that “the economic, security and health crises are being increasingly attributed to him, not his predecessors.”

Andrés Manuel López Obrador at a press conference on June 24. Source: Wikimedia Commons

AMLO started his term as president in December 2018 with enviable approval ratings of 74 per cent. The rate dropped to 54 per cent in March, just as the Covid-19 crisis arrived in Mexico. According to the most recent numbers, taken from a nationwide survey of 1,000 voters, AMLO’s approval rating stands at 65 per cent, compared to the Brazilian president’s 37 per cent.

For the first time in one hundred years, Rio de Janeiro has cancelled its landmark carnival as the city’s League of Samba Schools, LIESA, declared it impossible for the event to take place. LIESA President Jorge Castanheira said "it's increasingly difficult to have carnival without a vaccine." Meanwhile, Rio City Hall has not yet made the decision to ban carnival street parties that also take place across the city.

Whilst the government’s handling of the pandemic in Brazil has been contested by analysts and politicians around the world, Bolsonaro’s launch of monthly handouts has left his popularity on the rise. Whether or not his popularity will endure until the 2022 general elections remains to be seen.