New Scottish independence poll puts the Union in peril

Support for Scottish independence reaches 58 per cent as the ‘Yes’ side lead for the 10th consecutive poll.

“Scottish Independence rally, George Square, Glasgow.” November 2, 2019. Photo by Bob Shand, Flickr. CC BY-NC 2.0.

The future of the United Kingdom has been handed a fresh blow as a 10th consecutive poll puts public support for independence well above support for the continuation of the 313-year-old Act of Union.

More than half of Scottish voters now say they are ready to leave the United Kingdom.

Between October 2 and 9, pollsters at the market research company Ipsos MORI asked 1,045 Scottish voters how they would vote in a referendum on Scottish independence. 

58 per cent of decided voters stated that they would support breaking away from the rest of the United Kingdom, while just 42 per cent would vote "No".

This is the largest lead for the nationalist cause ever recorded in an opinion poll.

Little over six years ago the people of Scotland voted by 55 per cent to 45 to stay a part of the United Kingdom. 

A Number 10 spokesperson stated that despite the most recent poll "the issue of independence was settled when the Scottish people voted decisively to remain part of a strong United Kingdom, it was a once in a generation vote and it must be respected."

But those in the Scottish National Party (SNP) have seen the poll as a turning point in their fight for “Scexit”.

According to The Scotsman, the SNP’s deputy leader, Keith Brown, declared: "This is a landmark poll which shows that independence has now become the settled will of the majority of people in Scotland."

"If there is a clear majority for pro-independence, pro-referendum parties in next year's election - as this poll shows there would be by some considerable margin - then no Tory or any UK Government has the right to stand in the way."

Emily Gray, the managing director of Ipsos MORI in Scotland, added that: "Our latest poll will put a spring in the step of nationalists but makes grim reading for unionists. The Scottish public have shifted even further towards supporting an independent Scotland, with record numbers now saying they would vote 'yes'."

The poll, conducted for STV, also asked voters about how they would vote in next May's Holyrood elections. 

It found that over half of Scots, 58 per cent, suggested that they would vote SNP in the constituency ballot next May. An extra one per cent of voters stated they would support the Scottish Green Party, the other main separatist party north of the border.

The picture amongst Unionist ranks is far bleaker. The Conservatives lead the pack on 18 per cent, which is 39 points behind the SNP. Labour, which was the largest party in Scotland from 1959 until 2010, are polling at 13 per cent. The Liberal Democrats, who could traditionally rely on Scotland to return a handful of MPs, are on just 8 per cent.

The SNP's lead in the regional ballot is slightly reduced. However, it appears that the pro-independence vote is still polling well above half. 47 per cent of voters are prepared to vote for the SNP and the Greens, polling at 9 per cent, will replace the Liberal Democrats as the fourth largest party. 

There is almost no change with Unionist vote share when compared to the constituency poll.

If the SNP are victorious then the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has made it clear that she will formally request for Westminster to facilitate a second independence referendum through a section 30 order.

This would put even greater pressure on Boris Johnson's government. 

The prime minister’s approval rating has taken a hit throughout the United Kingdom but in Scotland he proves to be the most divisive.

Satisfaction for Boris Johnson north of the border is staggeringly low with three-quarters of Scots dissatisfied with his performance in Number 10. 

By comparison, both Sir Keir Starmer and Nicola Sturgeon have positive approval ratings. The Scottish first minister has a net satisfaction rating of 49 per cent, whereas the leader of the opposition’s net figure is 16 per cent.

The pollsters final conclusions revolved around what arguments enthused voters to support independence and what underpins the Unionist vote.

The most convincing arguments for independence are political and emphasise the differences between the two nations who entered the Union in 1707.

Voters believe the people of Scotland and England desire to take their respective nations in different directions - symbolised by the English support for Brexit and the fact that the Tories have not been the dominant party in Scotland since 1955. 

The second most persuasive argument for Scexit was that Scots lack trust in the Westminster machine.

On the "No" side, as in 2014, voters found economic arguments more compelling.

The threat of independence on Scottish jobs remains a primary concern with almost two-thirds of Scottish exports bound for the rest of the United Kingdom. Therefore, there are concerns about the potential impact of erecting economic barriers between Scotland and England.

Recent polls also suggest that the “project fear” argument will again be an effective weapon to deploy in a second independence referendum.

There has even been speculation that Holyrood could be forced to negotiate the terms of Scotland´s departure before voters go to the polls. 

These terms - that may include a hard border and would raise serious question marks over currency - could help the “No” side win back voters who wanted the UK to remain a part of the European Union in 2016.

Surprisingly, however, the most compelling argument for the Union was the emotive, political, even historical cry that "in spite of current challenges, the different countries in the UK still have more in common than divides us". 

There are little over 200 days until the people of Scotland go to the polls to elect their devolved parliamentarians in Edinburgh. These recent polls have mounted pressure on all three main Unionist parties. A failure to prevent a pro-independence majority could result in another constitutional crisis in Westminster and beyond.

This article is published as part of The Commons Man series, written by Pi Media columnist Jack Walters.