Turning Back Time: Can Lula Save the Amazon?

After years of exploitation and decimation under Bolsonaro’s presidency, all hope is not yet lost for the Amazon rainforest as Lula returns as Brazil’s environmentalist leader

Source: Unsplash (Daniel Granja)

Hope for the preservation of the rainforest is reignited as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly beat Jair Bolsonaro in the Brazilian presidential election last month. 

A hot topic during the campaign, the Amazon rainforest is currently being decimated at alarming rates- a dreadful devolution emboldened by Bolsonaro’s government over the last 3 years. Often referred to as the “lungs of the planet”, the ecosystem is facing an unprecedented crisis due to human settlement and agricultural development of land, with 19% of the Brazilian Amazon already lost. Scientists have estimated that if 20-25% of the rainforest gets wiped out, it could tip it into a savanna-like ecosystem. 

“The fight against climate change will be the highest profile of my next mandate”

But we have yet to reach no-return damage. A positive turnaround is expected as Brazil recently elected its former president, Lula da Silva. Commonly called Lula, the new leader campaigned heavily for the preservation of the rainforest, pledging to keep working on the positive environmental measures that marked his previous mandate. 

Lula can bring the critical change needed for the future of the Amazon, saving the forest just as it is set to reach a crucial tipping point. However, the new president’s power of action might be limited. Can Lula return to the path of saving the Amazon?

The Amazon after Bolsonaro’s presidency

Jair Bolsonaro deemed that the indigenous communities inhabiting natural reserves were “hold[ing] Brazil back” and complained that instead, these reserves “could bring billions in tourism”.  Favouring the profits it could provide over its crucial preservation, the ex-president worked to weaken safeguards for protected areas, to favour the exploitation of land by industries, and to diminish government protection for indigenous communities. So much so that Bolsonaro’s presidency correlates with a 52% increase in land being cleared compared to three years prior, marking a 15-year high in deforestation. 

Lula’s past and future legacy on the Amazon

During his previous presidency from 2003 to 2010, Lula’s government reduced deforestation by nearly 80%. He achieved such records by implementing and enforcing the existing Forest Code, with actions such as improving satellite monitoring systems and creating new protected areas. Due to his impressive legacy, a Carbon Brief analysis estimated that another Lula presidency could cut deforestation by 89% over the next decade, avoiding approximately 76,000 square kilometres of forest loss (roughly the size of Panama). 

Lula opened his second presidency with the ambitious claim that he aimed for zero deforestation over the next four years, a bold advance on the “zero illegal deforestation” goal of his two previous mandates. Lula has incorporated environmental issues into his agenda to an impressive degree, publicly committing to over 20 policies including carbon pricing, new incentives for sustainable farming, as well as creating a committee to ensure public policies stick to Brazil’s Paris targets.

Led by his belief that “it is possible to develop, generate employment, and preserve the forest”, the leader will merge the fight against environmental degradation with that of social issues as well. The president’s centre-left party will prioritise the creation of new green jobs, and pledged to support Indigenous tribes, announcing the creation of an Indigenous ministry.

Challenges for preservation: the gap between words and action

“We are not interested in a war for the environment, but we are ready to defend it from any threat” declared Lula, stressing his determination to tackle the numerous obstacles he will face in cutting deforestation. A major challenge is the tracking of illegal extractions, which are often masked as legal cuttings through faked paperwork. Lula will therefore have to rebuild the nation’s environmental agencies and infrastructures, currently operating on the lowest environmental budget a Brazilian government has had in decades. 

The president’s determination might also be hindered by the national political scene. Bolsonaro and other right-wing parties will retain significant influence in congress, which means Lula will face a tough road ahead in implementing his programme. 

Despite all the difficulties encountered, Lula has stated and demonstrated that environmental preservation is a priority to him, and relying on his previous presidency, one can assume that deforestation rates will drop as he returns. Whether or not this will ultimately be enough to save the Amazon from its demise is yet unknown, but this is certainly a step in the right direction.