Uncertainty plagues the Democratic primaries

Picture credit: Element5digital

Grace Kuperman analyses the current US primary field.

On February 3rd, the US Democratic caucuses in Iowa resulted in widespread chaos which overshadowed the victory of Democratic candidates Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. In the New Hampshire primaries, Bernie Sanders won 26% of the vote, with Buttigieg coming in second place by a narrow margin.

The first few caucuses and primaries — Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada — have a history of predicting the winner of the primaries, essentially giving candidates a “golden ticket” to the party nomination against incumbent president Donald Trump. However, the breakdown of the voting system in Iowa, resulting in a two-day delay in results, has left many feeling uncertain. Voters are looking for the best candidate to beat President Trump and are wary of any risk involved with the potential Democratic candidates, dividing the party electorate into strict moderate and progressive coalitions. 

Former Vice President Joe Biden has dropped in the polls after coming in fourth and fifth in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively. Starting his campaign as the perceived front-runner, his support in the first two elections waned in favour of other moderate candidates. However, it should be noted that his base is made up of a large number of African American voters who still favour him from the Obama-era. Expecting him to do well in southern states like South Carolina, we will watch as his voters decide to either stick with him through dropping poll numbers, or wait until the primaries have reached more diverse states. 

Several narratives have emerged that are worth noting on the divide between moderate and more progressive voters. First, Amy Klobuchar has seen an unexpected surge in voters presenting a favourable option to many moderates. Her place as a woman from a mid-Western state, prior experience in the Senate, and as a female veteran has swayed voters from candidates like Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren. She is seen as a kind of concoction of all these candidates. Second, Senator Elizabeth Warren’s campaign has seen a steady decline in support over the last couple weeks, overshadowed by Bernie’s loyal coalition which leaves little room for another equally progressive candidate. It will be interesting to see if her campaign decides to cater to more moderate voters in the next couple of weeks. 

Andrew Yang and Colorado Senator Michael Bennett have now suspended their campaigns after failing to garner any significant numbers of support. Andrew Yang, in particular, did better than was expected of him, creating a smaller, non-partisan base of loyal supporters who admired his positivity and ideas on the economy. 

As the primary season continues this spring, Bernie Sanders faces the challenge of expanding his coalition. Bernie’s success in the first two primaries can be attributed to the split in the moderate vote between candidates like Biden or Buttigieg. Looking ahead, Bernie is expected to win the delegate majority he needs for the Democratic party nomination, but many are worried about his viability in the general election this November. 

Sanders’ campaign fuels anxiety among moderates, who are worried about his “Bernie or Bust” mentality and see him as just another voice of division, even if they support his policies. In Iowa, ideologically centrist candidates — Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar — won 53% of the vote in New Hampshire, with Sanders and Warren winning 35% of the vote. His progressive ideals are not the issue, unless you’re a hard-core republican; it’s that moderate voters are unsure of his ability to gather support from disaffected Republicans who don’t want to see Trump re-elected, and who are too conservative to vote for a democratic-socialist. 

The electoral system in the United States makes it difficult for polarized candidates to win, as the President is not the leader of the party in Congress, but an individual who ideally represents the majority of Americans. Moderates and progressives in the Democratic Party will continue to battle it out over the next couple months, deciding who is not only the best option to win against President Trump, but someone they believe represents unity in a time of unprecedented division.