What happens if Trump loses?
Possible outcomes of the 2020 U.S. election.
Source: Shutterstock
Like any American with a politically rich media diet, I have been obsessively following Joe Biden’s upcoming VP pick, observing the new direction of the Trump campaign under the more cautious steerage of Bill Stepien, and wondering (aloud) what happens if Trump loses? (Full disclosure: I will vote for Biden, but this decision brings me no great joy.)
The least likely (but conceivable) scenario
Trump concedes the race to Joe Biden and prepares for a bitter transition of power. Although there may not be enough votes to call a winner on the night of November 3, when the data does come in, the president cedes the election, delays changes in White House and administration staff, and does not attend Biden’s inauguration. He continues his Twitter rants from the private sector.
A slightly (slightly) more realistic scenario
Trump loses the election and eventually starts his own conservative TV network, one that is further to the right and more conspiratorial — sorry, “loyal” — than Fox News. As The Bulwark’s Jonathan V. Last pointed out, “There is every reason to think that he will vigorously attack any Republican who was disloyal to him during his administration. Or retroactively criticises his tenure. Or runs in opposition to one of his preferred candidates. Or jeopardises any of his many and varied interests.”
Just look at Trump’s past. CNN’s Chris Cillizza writes that the president’s “formative experience directly preceding the presidency was in the world of reality TV…He is obsessed — and always has been — with cable TV news [and he] fashions himself to be a conservative pundit — using Twitter to pop off about whatever he sees on the air.”
Forty-five is not going to be a president who goes quietly. He will continue to tweet, voice his grievances on cable news shows with the “credibility” of a former president, and do everything in his power to hold on to the spotlight.
A realistic (and dangerous) likelihood
Trump loses the election, but rejects the results.
Lawrence Douglas, a legal scholar and a professor at Amherst College, came up with three conceivable “catastrophe scenarios” for the 2020 election, summed up by Masha Gessen in The New Yorker.
Scenario 1: “Trump gets five million fewer votes than Joe Biden, but appears to win the Electoral College — that is, until two Republican electors from Pennsylvania decide to break ranks and vote for Mitt Romney.” Douglas can already picture the tweets:
“BULLSHIT rains [sic] in PA!!! TREASONOUS ‘electors’ trying to DEFRAUD the American People”
Scenario 2: Hackers attack Detroit’s power grid on Election Day, the city goes dark, and the votes aren’t counted. Trump tries unsuccessfully to prevent a recount (“DETROIT doesn’t get a revote because very LOW IQ mayor doesn’t know how to HOLD AN ELECTION!”). Ultimately, the results of the recount are recognised by the Supreme Court, but not by the president.
Scenario 3: In the third and most dangerous scenario, “Fox News calls the race for Trump, but an unprecedented number of Americans have voted by mail, and as their votes are counted, the balance shifts: Americans have chosen Biden. The process of counting absentee ballots is so cumbersome and labour-intensive, however, that in some states it necessarily misses the filing deadline. As a result, three states each file two conflicting vote reports, certified by separate agencies: one that privileges the deadline and one that reflects the total number of ballots collected. The first count comes out in favor of Trump, the second in favour of Biden.”
In the scenario where the final winner cannot immediately be called, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is temporarily sworn in. At the same time, one of the conservative Supreme Court Justices swears in Trump, while Biden prematurely claims victory. The nation has three presidents, three bodies of supporters. And we all know whose supporters are armed to the teeth.
The point
Each of these scenarios has a historical precedent, and as Gessen argues, “Trump will work to exacerbate any crisis, not resolve it.” If Trump is to lose and, moreover, accept this loss, then Biden needs an overwhelming victory in the popular vote and Electoral College.
This means voting, and it means voting by mail, despite the president’s tantrums that the system is fraudulent, and the election should be delayed. Voters can begin voting by mail at the end of September. America, I think you know what you have to do.
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