China Is Considering Sending Lethal Aid to Russia. Who Are Russia’s Allies?

Courtesy of WikiMedia

Ever since Vladimir Putin made his speeches on 22nd and 24th February 2022, the world has turned its eyes to Ukraine. A very clear-cut division line was officially drawn between Russia and the West: now, instead of a “quiet” war in Donbas and illegal annexation of Crimea that the West allowed Russia to get away with for eight years, it is a factual full-scale invasion that presents and perpetrates vile war crimes against humanity. Most of the countries took their side as soon as the invasion occurred, and the split was very clear – you are either pro-Ukraine or pro-Russia. Nevertheless, there is one global power that managed to maintain relative neutrality in its position, sending mixed signals of verbal support to Ukraine, while also never directly condemning Russia and agreeing with Putin’s arguments against NATO: the People’s Republic of China.

On February 25th, the CIA confirmed the possibility of the supply of Chinese lethal aid to Russia. A day before that, however, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China released an official 12-point peace and settlement plan in response to the “Ukraine Crisis” which was then publicly announced by Wang Yi, the Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party, at the Munich Security Conference. The plan emphasises the importance of the sovereignty of all countries where “double standards must be rejected.” 

It is clear that the effect that sanctions and economic and political isolation have had on Russia make China a vital partner in helping to keep the Russian economy afloat. But what is in it for China? The amount of contradictory discourse on either side makes it almost impossible to identify what stands as a priority for it.

In an interview with DW, the former Chinese senior colonel Zhou Bo argued that China’s attitude towards Russia is shaped by the fact that Russia is its largest neighbour. “So, in that regard, we have to make sure that our relationship with Russia is a good one, a sustainable one,” he added. He also emphasised that the war in Ukraine is not in China’s interest: “If it can stop immediately, we would be most happy, but we know it won’t stop, probably not at all this year.” Bo places the blame on the West’s “adamant support of Ukraine by all means” which, in the context of Russia being and remaining a large country with a nuclear arsenal, is not justifiable in China’s point of view. 

The discourse around the Chinese position is confusing, especially when the context of its personal interests is taken into account. The day after the Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a peace plan, it was announced that Russia’s primary ally, Belarus President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, will be visiting China from February 28th to March 2nd, further escalating tensions in the Western understanding of China’s position in the war.

But is this enough to call China Russia’s ally? With the current factual evidence, it is impossible to say for sure, because China has not yet supplied any direct lethal support to Russia. In these circumstances, China may not directly profit from the war in Ukraine, but it is certainly interested in maintaining a diplomatic relationship with Russia, considering Xi Jinping’s intention to visit Putin in Russia in the coming months. This notion is only further amplified by Wang’s rhetoric on the importance of “multipolar” approaches to international affairs, as opposed to the American “unipolar” approach.

However, it is going to be a completely different story if China does provide lethal aid (specifically drones and ammunition), thus directly involving itself in the European crisis. It would trigger a new wave of sanctions, this time directed at itself. And, as Maia Nikoladze, the assistant director of the GeoEconomics Center at the Atlantic Council, argued: “China is a lot more intertwined with the world economy than Russia is. I do not think that China would go so far as to take Russia’s side. They’re just trying to be neutral [but] only so far as it does not cause punitive economic measures.”

Just like with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it is impossible to predict what is going to happen in the coming months. If China does decide to supply lethal aid to Russia, it would entirely change the current geopolitical course in the world, posing significant risks to the global economy and stability. Now we can only wait and be wary of how the situation develops.