COP28: all talk, no action?
Tripling Nuclear Energy by 2050, Net Zero Nuclear Event, at the United Nations Climate Change Conference UNCCC, held at the Expo City Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 2nd December. Photo credits: Dean Calma / IAEA, Wikimedia Commons
The 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) officially started this year on the 30th of November. The annual summit aims to discuss how to limit the effects of climate change and ensure all “parties” continue to abide by the original UN climate agreement set in 1992.The conference this year has already fallen under scrutiny as the UAE appointed Sultan Al-Jaber, the chief executive of a state-owned oil company, to be the conference lead.
Controversial decisions
Sultan Al-Jaber has been on record stating that there is “no science” indicating a need to phase out fossil fuels to meet the current target of restricting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The statement was made in response to an alarmingly high number of scientists raising concerns about the direction the talks were heading in.
The UN secretary general, António Guterres, stated that the comment from Al-Jaber was “verging on climate denial”. He had previously told delegates at the conference that “the science is clear….we very much believe and respect the science”. As part of the Paris Agreement back in 2015, all countries that were part of the UN climate talks agreed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, i.e., carbon dioxide and methane, in attempt to try to reduce the global temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
In order for this goal to be met, global warming needs to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius with no further increases by the year 2050. Professor Jim Skea, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), stated that oil use would need to be reduced by 60% to meet the goal set by previous COPs. This heavily impacts oil-rich countries, whose economies rely on the export of crude oil to fund new investments into their economies. The concerns of the affected countries prompted talks late into Tuesday morning as they attempted to get a new draft ready which was workable for all participants.
The issues surrounding this conference
The climate body published its latest draft text of the new deal on the 11th of December. This included a range of actions that countries would take to meet the emissions standards set by the previous conventions. However, infuriatingly to many, the list of possible actions did not include any reference to the phasing out of fossil fuels. The draft was updated to now include “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels…. before or around 2050, in keeping with the science.”
The Guardian reported on the 11th of December that Al Jaber, chief executive of Adnoc (the UAE national oil company), was pressured to water down the original text further, despite spending the previous 24 hours in talks with delegates from multiple countries. This is suspected to be the result of countries aiming to continue their oil production but, reducing total emissions with the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Critics and many at the conference have pointed towards the fact that the new text now avoids the use of the word “unabated” but does not address the immediate fossil fuel production. CCS barely exists in today’s fossil fuel production process, and any efforts at scaling up this approach is considered too “risky”.
The future
Since Saturday, 120 countries have joined a pledge to triple the capacity of renewable energy within their countries, as well as agreeing to double the efficiency of energy gains by 2030. Whilst many more economically developed countries have agreed to the terms, China and India are not amongst those who have agreed to the plans. Despite both countries investing into renewable energy, uncertainty surrounding how the pledges would affect their current systems have been suggested as reasons for not signing.
As the ongoing talks continue to reach an impasse, it is unclear as to how the next set of discussions will be able to break the deadlock and deliver a new workable deal.