Could Trump 2028 become reality?

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It’s well-known that U.S. presidents are constitutionally limited to two terms. The 22nd Amendment clearly specifies that “no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice”. So why, in President Trump’s second term, is Trump 2028 being discussed?

What do we know from the Trump administration so far?

While Trump hasn’t outright indicated that there are plans for another presidential bid, his administration and allies have made it clear that they consider it a feasible path for the President once his second term comes to a close in January 2029. 

The official Trump Store is selling ‘Trump 2028’ caps, with the product listing encouraging customers to “rewrite the rules with the Trump 2028 high crown hat”, and those close to the President have alluded to and even confirmed, plans for Trump 2028. Speaking with The Economist, former White House Chief Strategist Steven Bannon stated that there is a plan in place for a third presidential term, and that there are “many different alternatives” that would allow the campaign to circumvent constitutional restrictions.

But what does the President himself have to say? In an interview with NBC earlier this year, Trump confirmed that he is “not joking” about Trump 2028, and stated that there are “methods” which could allow it.

However, more recent statements from the President suggest that he acknowledges the constitutional reality. At the end of October, Trump told reporters that the Constitution is “pretty clear” that he is “not allowed to run”. This sentiment was shared by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker, Mike Johnson, who stated that he doesn’t “see a path” for a third Trump term.

Would Trump win a presidential election today? 

While Trump insists that he’s polling the “highest numbers that [he’s] ever had”, the data says otherwise. This week, the President’s net approval rating has hit a second-term low of -18%, according to The Economist, with overall negative net approval ratings in 80% of states, including a number of Republican strongholds like Texas, Kansas and Mississippi. 

More broadly, the Republicans have suffered some significant losses in recent weeks following the first major elections since the beginning of Trump’s second term. Voters in California approved Proposal 50, a measure to redraw congressional districts that will likely further disadvantage Republicans in a state that already skews heavily towards the Democrats. They also suffered losses on the East Coast, with sweeping Democratic victories in Virginia and New Jersey governors' races, as well as in the New York City mayoral contest. Trump has attributed these losses to his absence from the ballot, while other Republicans have blamed poor candidate quality and the government shutdown. 

While Trump's voter base still overwhelmingly approves of his performance as president,  widespread negative approval for Trump and recent electoral losses for the Republican party indicates that, were an election called today, Trump wouldn’t have the adequate support to win a third term.

Can Trump circumvent the Constitution?

While polling figures and recent electoral results point to a decline in support for Trump and Republicans in the U.S., the constitutional impossibility of President Trump running for a third term is what truly undermines Trump 2028. Despite this, a range of theories continue to circulate about how constitutional blockers to a third Trump term could be circumvented. 

The most popular theory is not that Trump could run for president again, but that he instead runs as a vice-presidential candidate alongside a presidential candidate. If the pair win the election and are sworn in, the presidential candidate could resign, leaving Trump as president in 2028. 

This idea has been dismissed by President Trump as “too cute” and not “right”. During his time in office, as well as his time in the public eye as a private individual, Trump has shown that he is not a man who would want to be second to someone else on a ballot. Furthermore, this approach is fundamentally unconstitutional. The 12th Amendment states that “a person constitutionally ineligible to be president cannot be vice president”. Trump is constitutionally ineligible to be president based on the 22nd Amendment, thus is also ineligible to run as vice-president. 

Another prominent discussion is that Trump 2028 actually refers to a presidential bid from Eric Trump, Donald Trump’s son. Speaking with The New York Post, Eric Trump said that “if there was no other choice” and “if it got so bad”, he would consider running for president, but that he’s “happy, at least temporarily, to be retired from politics”. 

The Trump administration could also attempt a constitutional amendment. The process requires a two-thirds approval from both chambers of Congress, as well as approval from three-quarters of the country’s state-level governments. While this approach is technically possible, it’s highly unlikely to succeed. The Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, but don't have the majorities they would need to succeed. They similarly lack the necessary majorities in state-level governments, as the Democrats control 18/50 state legislatures. 

Regardless of feasibility, it’s unique that a president is even publicly considering a third term. Even before the two-term limit became constitutional, it was broadly considered tradition after George Washington stepped down following his two-term tenure. The mere discussion by Trump's administration of a third term is a sign of his erosion of American political traditions, the foundations on which much of U.S. democracy is based. Based on the constitutional restraints, it’s highly unlikely that President Trump will secure a third term of presidency. Nonetheless, even tentative discussion of such a blatantly unconstitutional act rings alarm bells.