Crash Course to Understanding the U.S. Election
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As November 5th approaches, all eyes are on the presidential race - but voters will also be deciding the balance of power in Congress, with Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives up for grabs. Here is a breakdown of what to expect on election night.
Presidential Election
In the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate running with Governor Tim Walz, faces former President Donald Trump, who is running with Senator JD Vance. Since the outcome will be determined by the electoral college, a few key “swing states”—those without a clear majority for either party—are likely to have the most impact. Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes and a history of flipping between parties, is one of the most closely watched states this year.
According to the Washington Post, Harris currently holds a slight lead both nationwide and in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. However, the margins remain razor-thin, with only a one-point difference in Pennsylvania.
The Senate
Senators serve six-year terms, and roughly one-third of Senate seats are contested every two years. Currently, Democrats maintain a narrow 51-49 majority. Independent Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia, a Democrat until 2024 when he registered as an independent, is retiring. His departure all but guarantees a win for the Republican candidate in the reliably conservative state.
For Democrats to keep their majority, they will have to flip a seat currently held by the GOP and maintain all pre-existing seats to keep their majority. One competitive race is in Texas, where incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz faces Democratic challenger Colin Allred. Cruz previously won a close race in 2018 against former Congressman Beto O’Rourke, and this race is expected to be similarly competitive.
The House of Representatives
In the House, Republicans currently have a slim eight-seat majority. While all 435 seats are up for election, only around 10% are considered competitive. The Cook Political Report, a political analysis newsletter, highlights 43 races to watch, with 11 leaning Democratic and six leaning Republican.