Democratic Dilemma: RFK Jr's Independent Challenge and the Fear Factor
Photo Courtesy: Wikimedia Commons
Since deciding to run for President as a Democrat in April, Robert F Kennedy Jr (RFK Jr) has paraded onto the political scene, leaving a furore of confusion in his wake. Just days after launching his campaign, RFK Jr was already polling at 20%. Many were surprised, not least members of the Democratic party, at the success he was having.
In recent months, his campaign has been mired in controversies; his borderline-conspiratorial sentiments have caused concern amongst Republicans and Democrats alike, fearing his ability to pull votes from their party bases. His anti-war message, anti-vax stance and a plethora of unproven beliefs - such as claiming the CIA murdered his father and uncle - draw a populist audience from across the political spectrum.
This begs the question: is RFK JR a populist with a compelling message or an attention-seeker exploiting the fissures of a fragmented political milieu? Even his family shares in the confusion - recently, four of his siblings stated “Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgement.”
To add to the chaos: On 9th October RFK Jr announced he would run as an independent.
Lambasted as a ‘nut’, a ‘conspiracist’, and an ‘anti-vaxxer’, in many ways, RFK Jr’s departure might not be bad news for Democrats. However, as it stands, there are only two Democratic choices: self-help guru Marianne Williamson and incumbent President Biden. It is reasonable to question why the party is so adamant Biden be the only serious option.
Polls show Democrats would prefer a different leader, but it seems no candidate is willing to part the curtains of party loyalty. Even if there were an alternative capable of winning the primary, they would be subjected to bi-partisan attacks that Biden has already withstood, an unattractive risk in such a highly consequential race. Many fear a looming Trumpian renaissance, if not through the former President himself, then via his younger, more agile, counterpart, Vivek Ramaswamy. Simply put, Democrats prefer the safety of Biden 2024 to the unknown. It’s the easy choice, especially when confronted by a fiend.
It is a long-held assumption that a strong primary challenger to the incumbent President hurts the party’s presidential bid, even if the incumbent President can thwart the competition. If recent history is any guide, there may be some truth to this belief: In 1976, Reagan (Republican) launched his first presidential campaign, valiantly challenging incumbent President Ford (Republican). Although Ford won the primary, he lost the presidency to Carter (Democrat). Pat Buchanan (Republican) proved a strong challenger against George H. W. Bush’s (Republican) 1992 re-election campaign, attacking his ‘no new taxes’ pledge - before President Bush then lost to Clinton (Democrat).
However, although a strong challenger at a Primary certainly weakens the nominee, it may also be that a weak nominee draws a strong challenge.
Whether or not President Biden is a weak candidate remains to be determined. For now, it seems almost inevitable that he will be the Democratic nominee; we will have to wait until the Republican challenger emerges to see any weaknesses.
RFK Jr with uncle President John F. Kennedy at the White House in 1961
Photo Courtesy: Wikimedia Commons
With RFK Jr as an independent, the election’s outcome is even more convoluted. In many ways he appeals to Conservative voters, but as a member of the thoroughly-Democrat Kennedy family, with liberal sentiments, the repercussions on Republican-Democrat vote split may play a key role in who wins. Indeed, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll estimated RFK Jr’s would receive 14% of the vote in a three-way match up against Trump (35%) and Biden (31%). This clear Trump win is yet more significant as most current Trump-vs-Biden polls put Biden just ahead.
RFK Jr could prove a crucial swing candidate in the general election, but still over a year remains and a lot can change. As for the Democrats’ insistence on one candidate, it is either a stubborn display of myopic political strategy or a stroke of genius that will spoil Republican hopes of regaining the White House. Whatever the answer, fear is obviously a driving factor. Though, as it stands right now, the Democrat presidential race hardly embodies the highly representative, multifaceted, and iridescent liberal-democratic party it claims to be.