Elections in Poland: outcomes and implication

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Last week’s Parliamentary Elections in Poland marked a pronounced shift in the country’s political balance, most notably seen in the record voter turnout of 74.4% — the highest since 1919. The right-wing Law and Justice Party, PiS, which has ruled for 8 years, will maintain its position as the party with the largest parliamentary presence after having won 35.4% of votes. However, the parliamentary majority went to the opposition with a collective 53.7% of the vote.

Amongst the opposition, the pro-EU Civic Coalition, KO, won 30.7% of the vote, the centre-right Third Way 14.4% and the leftist Lewica, 8.6%. It is likely that KO leader Donald Tusk, who previously served as Poland’s Prime Minister from 2007 to 2014 and President of the European Council from 2014 to 2019, will become the next Prime Minister.

The opposition majority win has been regarded favourably by those with hopes of ameliorating Poland’s strained relationship with the European Union after PiS launched a judicial reform programme in 2015, which the European Commission has launched several infringement proceedings against. The EU has stated that the reforms have compromised the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law in Poland. Consequently, the EU cut the budget for Poland in 2020. It is not to be restored until the EU rule of law standards are complied with.

The change in government could see a substantial shift in the dynamic between Warsaw and other European governments. During the run-up to the election, Tusk accused the current Polish Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński of “stabbing a political knife in Ukraine’s back”. This came after Kaczyński’s announcement that Poland was halting any further arms provision to Ukraine due to a diplomatic row over grain imports. Tusk has also called out Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a close PiS ally, for leading the “most pro-Putin government in Europe”. Further expectations of Tusk include repairing unstable relations with Germany owing to the prevalent anti-German rhetoric propagated by PiS rule. As PiS continues to enjoy prominent support in Poland, the success of Tusk’s political ambitions remains to be seen.