Elections in Slovakia: How the return of a former PM might shake Western unity with Ukraine

Photo Courtesy: OECD/Michael Dean (via Openverse)

A few weeks ago, Slovaks finally went to polling stations to elect their new parliament. It was hoped this would lead to the formation of a new government, to replace the caretaker administration running the country since May. This new government is yet to be established, however, and we can expect the results of the election to be felt throughout Europe, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine.

Election Results

Robert Fico’s SMER-SSD (Direction-Slovak Social Democracy) won the plurality with 23% of the popular vote and 42 seats. PS (Progressive Slovakia), whose former member is the current president, Zuzana Caputova, came second after gaining 18% and winning 32 seats. The winner of the previous election, OĽaNO (Ordinary People and Independent Personalities), came fourth after winning only 16 seats, less than 49 compared to the 2020 result. Four different parties also passed the 5% electoral threshold, including Hlas (Voice), a party formed by former prime minister Peter Pellegrini after he split from Mr Fico and left SMER in 2020. 

Since none of the parties received a majority vote, one of the aforementioned politicians is now required to form a coalition government. It seems Mr Fico is best placed to do so, as a former prime minister from 2006-2010 and 2012-2018, and leader of the largest party. He has been formally tasked with forming the government by President Caputova, and his most likely partners are Hlas and, perhaps surprisingly, SNS (Slovak National Party). 

The coalition of nominally social democratic parties (Hlas and SMER) with a far-right, ultra-nationalist party (SNS) might shock people not invested in Slovak politics. Yet this is not only a very real possibility, but the strange, seemingly dysfunctional type of coalition that constituted the last SMER-led government. 

The Return of Mr Fico

Mr Fico, despite his European affiliations, is nothing like the European, moderate social democrat he may appear to be. For a start, he has extremely conservative views on migration. He is known for various anti-Romani statements, such as his claim that “The great mass of Romani want to just lie in bed on social support and family benefits”. And he has also been strongly critical of letting Muslim migrants into Slovakia, declaring that he doesn’t want Islam in Slovakia.

Many will also associate SMER and its leader with corruption. His last premiership came to an end in 2018, when a journalist named Jan Kuciak was murdered while investigating an Italian criminal organisation’s activities in Slovakia. In the aftermath of the murder, one of Mr Fico’s assistants was found to be connected to this organisation - named ‘Ndragheta’ - leading to much public outcry and Mr Fico’s consequent resignation. Subsequent investigations revealed numerous cases of embezzlement and abuses of power during SMER’s rule, resulting in criminal charges being placed against Mr Fico. 

What is most crucial to understand about Mr Fico, however, is how his views on foreign policy can impact the rest of Europe. Mr Fico is known for holding much more pro-Russian views than the rest of the EU. After the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia, he accused Georgia of provoking Russia. Similar views were also part of his winning campaign, during which he promised to stop sending aid to Ukraine and has been critical of the Western sanctions imposed on Russia. Similarly to Viktor Orban, he says he supports ending the war through a peace process with Russia. This is why Stefan Lövfen, the leader of PES, has previosuly threatened to expel SMER from their Party of European Socialists. 

Mr Fico’s victory is already having its effects. The current Slovak technocratic government announced it would no longer send aid to Ukraine, precisely because Mr Fico has now been tasked with forming the coalition government.  If Mr Fico stays faithful to his campaign promises, he will stand apart from the West's united support for Ukraine and will instead side Slovakia with Hungary and Viktor Orban - who has long been something of a pariah inside the EU due to his ambivalent attitude towards Russia. 

Conclusion

It is worth noting that Slovak military aid would probably have been limited in any case. National resources have already been depleted through the sending of previous aid packages, as was pointed out by Mr Fico’s potential partner, Mr Pellegrini. Moreover, in contrast to Mr Orban, Mr Fico is considered to be a pragmatic politician. When in power, Mr Fico tried not to antagonise either Brussels or the D.C., and only became openly critical of them when in opposition. According to Krzysztof Dębiec from the Institute of Eastern Studies, therefore, Mr Fico will probably try to avoid actions that could be considered openly pro-Russia and which could start a conflict with the United States or the EU. We might even expect a clearly pro-Western nomination for the Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Nevertheless, and no matter how Mr Fico behaves if he forms his coalition government, his victory in Slovakia’s elections shows that support for Ukraine, which many of us in the West take for granted, is not to be found everywhere.