Elections in Taiwan: Why the world is talking about William Lai Ching-te’s victory
Photo Courtesy: https://www.flickr.com/photos/presidentialoffice/36641044280/ (via Wikimedia Commons)
On 13th January 2024, Taiwan held its 16th presidential elections and voted in William Lai Ching-te. What does that result mean, and why have Taiwan’s elections long sparked tensions between China and the United States? The reason this small island attracts so much attention lies behind Taiwan’s complicated history.
1945
The triangular relations between Taiwan, China and the United States can be traced back to the mid 20th century and the end of World War II. After eight years of combating and finally defeating the Japanese army, China was on the brink of destruction in 1945. The road to recovery, however, was hindered by the immediate eruption of the Chinese Civil War. Two forces - the nationalist and the communist Chinese - were competing with each other for the ruling right of the Chinese government. At the same time, these were the first years of the Cold War and the United States had devoted itself to intervening in the civil war and preventing the wider spread of communism in East Asia.
At the beginning of the Chinese Civil War, the nationalists had the upper hand and occupied most areas of China. The situation changed after 1947, however, when the communists began gaining support from most rural areas. Two years later, the nationalist force had decided to retreat to Taiwan and transferred most of its power to the island just 100 miles (160km) away from China. While they retreated to Taiwan, the communists in mainland China established the People’s Republic of China (PRC), with a government formed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
In the following years, the United States would continue to provide resources for the government in Taiwan to combat the CCP. The important turning point occurred in 1979, when the US decided to move its diplomatic recognition of China from Taipei - the capital of Taiwan - to Beijing. This not only affected the stance the US government followed in regard to Taiwan, but also influenced the stances of many other countries. Today, only 12 countries in the world recognise Taiwan as a sovereign country, while most others classify Taiwan solely as a territory.
Elections in Taiwan, especially the presidential elections, are therefore important because they reflect the government’s wider political status. For the CCP, Taiwan has always been a part of China and so should be ruled by the Chinese government. To assert this position, as recently as in December 2023, China has declared that any effort of the Taiwanese government towards independence will be prevented - while on that occasion President Xi Jinping made no mention of force, this possibility has never been renounced.
Recognising this threat, the United States continues to keep a close relationship with Taiwan, which is an important part of the former’s “first island chain” foreign policy. Even though they have ended official diplomatic ties, the US still provides support for Taiwan, to prevent any further war in this region and defend Taiwan’s democracy. As a semiconductor giant that produces essential materials for much modern technology, Taiwan also plays a crucial role in the world’s supply chain. To secure its safety, therefore, is also a way for the US to maintain its economic share of the global market.
2024
On 13 January, the responsibility once again fell on the citizens of Taiwan to vote for a new president and, in doing so, shape their relationship with China and the United States. Two major parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), have long been the most competitive in these elections, representing two different approaches towards China. The KMT, which arose from the nationalists who originally retreated to Taiwan in 1949, believes that Taiwan should only maintain its status quo without claiming independence. Peace can be preserved by maintaining dialogue with China, instead of completely ruining their relationship. The DPP, created in a transitional period for the Taiwanese government during the 1980s, places more emphasis on Taiwan’s importance on the world stage, particularly its relation with the US.
The former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, from the newly formed Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), also ran in the most recent election. The TPP claims to offer a “middle way” between the other two parties on the issue of Taiwan’s relationship with China, but in reality its stance is much like that of the KMT.
In the last elections in 2020, the implementation of a national security law in Hong Kong which undermined its democracy helped the DPP win a landslide victory, as many Taiwanese citizens did not wish to face the same situation in Taiwan. Fear of the Beijing government has grown among people in Taiwan, having seen China step in and pass a law which gives it the power to control free speech and the judicial system. In turn, as the DPP has also developed closer ties with the US, the number of threats from China has increased. More and more warplanes have been flying over Taiwan’s territory, as clear warnings to the DPP.
Last week, 40% of the voters once again chose the DPP as their new government, which made its candidate William Lai Ching-te president of Taiwan for the following four years. It implies that more Taiwanese citizens are supporting the view that Taiwan is a de facto sovereign nation that should keep a distance from China and forge deeper relations with other democratic countries.
Unsurprisingly, China is dismissing the result of the election, stating it “will not change the basic landscape and development trend of cross-Strait relations.” As the Chinese government has been putting economic and military pressure on the DPP government over the past eight years, it is likely that such pressure will continue in the future. Officials of the United States, in turn, have responded by stating that the US “does not support the independence of Taiwan” but “ is committed to maintaining cross-Strait peace and stability, and the peaceful resolution of differences, free from coercion and pressure.” It is unlikely that China will want to provoke a serious flashpoint and therefore that it will pursue its commitment of unification with Taiwan in the near future, but the conflicting stances of China and the US will surely continue to trigger tensions between the three.
The presidential elections in Taiwan represent far more than the election of a president. They also have an impact on future interactions between the world’s two great powers, and therefore influence relations and geopolitics across the globe.