Elections in Turkiye: Impacts on the Eastern Mediterranean
Photo Courtesy: Getty images. “I thought the Earth would split open,” said an earthquake survivor from Antakya, an affected city on Turkiye’s Eastern Coast.
Turkiye’s position is suboptimal to say the least. Its citizens currently face one of the most pronounced cost of living crises in the world with goods inflation at 67% last year, exacerbated by cultural tensions from a huge influx of 3.7 million Syrian refugees. If that was not enough, in February an earthquake struck its eastern cities, leading to $25 billion in damages and the loss of over 46 000 lives.
Is it all just bad luck? Not exactly. Despite mounting inflation, the nation’s premier, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is still electing to decrease interest rates, going against the views of all of the world’s major central banks. On top of that, his nationalist outlook is blamed for waging a military operation in Syria that is not only costing $22 billion a year in military spending, but also $8 billion for housing refugees. Recently, he has seen himself in the line of fire of criticism for ignoring warnings of seismologists to properly prepare for the inevitable seismic shock, given that the country sits on the North Anatolian fault line, one of the most active in the world.
Being labelled an “aspiring sultan” by international news, to say he has assaulted the country’s institutions for 20 years does not begin to describe the situation. He has prosecuted countless activists, opposition politicians and journalists to the point that Human Rights Watch, an NGO, reports that human rights have been “set back by decades.” But the brightest jewel on the sultan’s crown of achievements was being able to amend the constitution with the goal of being allowed to be president until 2029, a flagrant abuse of his constitutional powers. It is not surprising that Putin, another aspiring autocrat, followed his example a year later.
No wonder that in the upcoming presidential election in June, sentiment amongst voters is not in his favour. Although results shown by polls cannot be completely trusted, the six party coalition that has formed against him in January far exceeds Erdogan’s own party in the polls. They have decided to unite their powers to announce a single candidate to run against the current president, the likeliest being the current leader of the opposition, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
So if the presidential office goes under new management, what might change? A priority will be healing Turkiye’s strained relationship with the West. An easy start could be removing its veto position to greenlight Finland and Sweden into joining NATO, but stickier problems lie ahead.
Tensions with neighbouring Greece and Cyprus, worsened by Erdogan’s expansionist foreign policy, will be difficult to heal. But a first step in the right direction can be made. An example could be attempting to clarify maritime borders in the Aegean sea, a source of notable conflict last year, or even taking steps toward renegotiating the Cyprus problem, a dispute between Turkiye and Cyprus that has been on the UN Security Council’s agenda since 1968. If such goodwill is shown by Turkiye’s Foreign Ministry, one can even expect dialogue regarding official EU membership after talks have been put on ice in 2018 by the European Commission due to “continuing backslide of reforms.”
These goals are completely rational. To revive its relationship with the West in order to get out of its sticky economic situation is a policy priority for the opposition parties. Only by increasing investment and export flows will confidence in the economy be regained and inflation stabilised.
Nevertheless, in the word Mediterranean is embedded the Latin term “medium,” meaning middle. This means that Turkiye can explore its options not only with the West, but with the East. In fact, it is already doing so. The country is already a key part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and both countries declare that they are “key strategic and economic allies.” Diplomats are also not shy on maintaining talks with Russia, to the point that Turkiye is one of the only international destinations accepting its international flights.
Another one of its key partners lies just a few hundred miles away. Turkiye and Saudi Arabia have recently found common ground over alleged “Iranian expansionism.” This growing partnership is clearly evidenced by a $5 trillion dollar deposit of the Saudi Central Bank to its Turkish counterpart, in the hopes of resuscitating base money supplies.
Therefore, can Turkiye enjoy the best of both worlds? In short, it is unlikely. As the global geopolitical landscape becomes increasingly bipolar, its leaders will need to make a decision between East and West.
The simplest reason is due to geography. Because of proximity, 56% of exports and 54% of its imports come from Europe, making it economically unfeasible to shun ties with its neighbours. Even more so since Europe is the source of 60% of the FDI in the country, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
National security is similarly a key factor. As a NATO member, all of Turkiye’s military systems hail from the US, forcing it to be dependent for the supplying of spare parts and new equipment. This implies that in the case of friendlier relations with Russia and China, the effect on the quality of the nation’s military will be severe as the US can limit or completely sever the country’s export allowance. As a matter of fact, Turkiye is already excluded from the F-35 fighter jet program over its purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile system in 2019.
Thus, if Erdogan is indeed dethroned, the new president will be faced with a herculean task. In foreign relations, breaking a pact is greatly easier than mending it. Admittedly, relations with the West are not completely shattered, but shrouded in mutual distrust. But what is definitely certain is that, if they are successful, the Turkish people will be thankful.