Enough! What led to the surge of far-right support in Portugal?

Photo Courtesy: Duke of Winterfell (via Wikimedia Commons)

Despite the centre-right ‘Democratic Alliance’ having won last week’s Portuguese legislative election with 29.5% of the vote*, ‘Chega!’ dominated the night’s headlines. The far-right populist party, whose name directly translates to ‘Enough!’, quadrupled their seats in the national assembly, from 12 of the 230 seats to 48, and garnered over 18% of the vote. By winning Faro,  the southernmost region of continental Portugal, the party painted the map in three colours for the first time since 1991, proclaiming the end of Portugal’s ‘bipartisanship’.

6.1 million individuals voted in the legislative elections, making it the most participated election in Portuguese history with the highest participation rate since 1991. Although this was celebrated by all parties as a sign of health within Portuguese democracy, the drop in abstention likely boosted the far-right - according to preliminary analysis conducted by professor Pedro Magalhães, Chega performed better in municipalities where abstention rates dropped more significantly. Several commentators have argued that this is because citizens who had previously abstained now sensed an opportunity for anti-establishment change.

Corruption

The context in which the election was called and carried out was fertile ground for populist politics. The former socialist prime-minister António Costa’s government was mired in scandals throughout their term, suffering 14 government resignations. Elections were called after it was announced that António Costa himself was to be investigated over corruption allegations regarding lithium mines in the north of Portugal and green hydrogen projects in Sines. The resignation came after a morning of intense and highly mediatised police searches at several government buildings and the prime-minister’s residence, where €75,800 were found stashed in his chief-of-staff’s office.

Corruption continued to play a significant role in the campaign when, in January, the centre-right run regional government of Madeira suffered raids by police again over corruption allegations surrounding the construction of hotels on the island. For many voters, these events served as proof of the systemic corruption within the two major parties and the political ‘system’. With their ‘Clean-up Portugal’ slogan, Chega ran as an anti-corruption and anti-system party against a ‘corrupt elite’, convincing many disillusioned voters.

Systemic issues

A lagging economy with lacking social services and one of the worst housing crises in Europe have also fueled Chega’s rise. The median salary has been stagnant since before 2007. Portugal has also battled with A&E waiting times of over 10 hours in several public hospitals this winter, as well as several obstetric emergency blocs closing in rotation. Many have lost faith in the two major parties’ capacities to rectify these systemic issues.

Salaries, healthcare and housing were the first, second and fourth most discussed issues during the debates running up to the election. Chega capitalised on general discontent. In Faro, the district that the party won, 19% of the population live under the Portuguese relative poverty line, above the national average. Tourism being the main economic activity in the region, it holds the lowest percentage of the population covered by an indefinite employment contract (51% against the national average of 68%). The region has also been placed on hold for 22 years regarding the construction of a new hospital, in order to alleviate the overcrowded Faro hospital that in 2023 received 11 complaints of alleged medical negligence.

Unpopular moderate leaders

The leaders of both major moderate parties, the Socialist Party (PS) on the left and Social Democratic Party (PSD) on the right, were relatively unpopular among the electorate. Both were involved in their own scandals before or during the campaign. Pedro Nuno Santos, PS’ leader, had resigned from António Costa’s government just a year prior to the beginning of the campaign, over a scandal involving a large indemnity approved by a WhatsApp message. He was also later involved in a mini-scandal over a subsidy he received as a member of parliament. Luís Montenegro was himself involved in a scandal during the campaign surrounding the construction of a house in his hometown of Espinho.

Chega’s future

Although Chega’s rapid rise is now cemented in Portuguese politics, the party’s future steps are unknown. Although the parliament is now in gridlock, Luís Montenegro recently restated that he would not sign any agreement with the far-right party. During the passing of the last legislature, Chega was isolated by all parties in the Assembly of the Republic, passing 0 parliamentary bills. It is unclear how long this isolation can last.

*The final result could still change given the historically high voter turnout among the two emigrant constituencies, whose ballots will be counted on the 20th of March.