Nukes in space? Breaking down the Russian threat

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Sources say Russia is planning to put nuclear weapons in space. However, is there actually much to fear, and would the technology be at all effective? 

Since Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, many have been worried about the possibility of nuclear war. Numerous times, Putin and his allies have threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Recently, during the State of Nation Address, Putin warned that “strategic nuclear forces are in a state of full readiness for use.”  Various Russian actions, such as revoking the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty or agreeing to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus have only increased the fear. However, there is a new concern to be added to the list of those worried about a nuclear holocaust: Russia putting nuclear weapons in space. 

Such revelations come from unidentified US sources, which state that Russia is planning to place a nuclear explosive on the Earth’s orbit, as reported by Reuters. Similar news came from Bloomberg, which alleges that Russia could launch a nuclear or mock warhead into space already this year. Apparently, US officials reported those concerns to Congress and their European allies. This is in line with statements by White House officials who said that technology violating the Outer Space Treaty, which bans weapons of mass destruction in space, is being developed. 

Putin has already denied the reports, but this would be an entirely natural response if he did have such plans, especially at an early stage. No matter what the truth is, let’s consider what it would mean for Russia to place nuclear weapons in space, and whether we should be scared.  

To alleviate the biggest concern, the alleged weapon would be used against satellites rather than against targets on Earth. Therefore, deployment does not represent a direct threat to people. Targeting humans from space would not give Russia many benefits anyway, considering it has plenty of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

However, how effective could nuclear weapons be against satellites? Compared to conventional anti-satellite weapons (ASATs), which exist and have been tested but never used in warfare, it seems the apparent advantage is that a nuclear weapon could destroy more satellites at once. Satellites play a crucial role in modern warfare and the US currently has a numerical advantage over Russia when it comes to military satellites. Russia could therefore use a nuclear ASAT tactically to diminish US superiority in case of a confrontation between the two countries. Also, in the current war with Ukraine, satellites have been valuable to Russia’s enemy, as Starlinks have been providing internet to the Ukrainian military.  

However, nuclear ASAT technology has its limits. Firstly, it would face the same issue as every other anti-satellite weapon, namely the resultant space debris. Those who have watched Alfonso Cuaron’s “Gravity” will know how problematic it can be, with Sandra Bullock and George Clooney fighting for their lives in the film after debris from a shot-down satellite indiscriminately destroyed other objects. While not as dangerous as depicted in the film, past tests created significant debris, with the 2021 Russian destruction of their Kosmos 1408 creating a potential threat to the International Space Station. The usage of ASATs could, in theory, trigger the so-called Kessler syndrome. In this chain reaction, creating space debris leads to collisions, which result in more debris, increasing the likelihood of further collisions.

The problem of destroying other satellites would be even bigger with nuclear weapons. Nuclear explosions generate electromagnetic pulses and radiation belts. This could easily destroy Russia’s satellites, and numerous satellites of other countries, whether they are enemies, allies or neutral. Therefore, rationally, it could only be used as a last resort. Thus, despite its problems, conventional ASATs are still more precise, and their usage produces significantly less collateral damage.

Lastly, placing nuclear weapons in space does not create much advantage compared to those based on Earth. Even if Russia wants to use nuclear weapons in space, it could easily target satellites from Earth, which has been done when testing conventional anti-satellite weapons.However, this does not mean that placing weapons in space would be useless. It certainly creates fear, which is definitely what Putin wants. It also could act as a deterrent, with the threat of Russia sabotaging global communications and other satellite-based technologies always looming, literally, above our heads.