Portuguese Elections: The Night Nobody Wanted

Photo Courtesy: David Stanley

After a wave of corruption allegations, the resignation of the prime-minister in November, and turmoil in Portuguese regional politics; the Portuguese voted on the 10th of March to elect their next representatives. In an election painted with the symbolism of the 50th anniversary of democracy in the country, and amid the highest voter participation rate since 1991, the night ended in a bleak outlook for the near-future of Portuguese politics. 

The Democratic Alliance (AD), a recreation of the successful 1980s alliance uniting the centre-right PSD with the conservatives and minor monarchist party, failed to make the breakthrough they had hoped for. The party won the election with the smallest margin in Portuguese history, garnering 29.5% of the vote, a smaller share than in the 2022 elections. This failure to breakthrough was exacerbated by thousands mistakenly voting for the similarly named minor ADN party, instead of AD, which managed to gain 1.6% of the vote because of this.

The main loser of the night was the Socialist Party, who lost their absolute majority in parliament for 28.7% of the vote, making it their worst election since 2011, when the party had called EU financial institutions to bail the country out of potential bankruptcy.

Although short of their ambitions, 18.1% of electors chose the far-right ‘Chega’, more than doubling their vote share. The party, that did not exist prior to the 2019 elections, even won the southernmost region of Portugal, symbolising for some the end of the ‘two-party’ political system in the country.

Finding a stable governing scenario is now more challenging than ever. Although, in essence, the parties on the right hold nearly 60% of the seats altogether, the leader of the AD alliance has ruled out any government, or agreement, with the far-right. On Saturday, the President Rebelo de Sousa had also warned that he would not allow a government with Chega. The leader of the Socialist Party has also denied the possibility of any agreement with AD. With none of the major blocs holding the 116 seats required to hold a majority, Portugal’s future remains uncertain.