Prime Minister Rishi Sunak narrowly succeeds in passing the Rwanda bill, but the threat to opposition remains

Photo Courtesy: Flickr, Number 10

Last night, MPs backed the second reading of the contentious Rwanda bill, by 313 votes to 269, with a majority of 44. This victory secures Sunak’s leadership for now, but at least 25 Tory MPs abstained on the bill in an act of rebellion, which points to incoming turbulence in January, when the bill will be read a third and final time.

Tackling migration is one of Sunak’s main objectives laid out in his five promises of halving inflation, growing the economy, reducing the national debt, cutting down NHS waiting lists, and introducing new laws to stop Channel crossings on small boats. The Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill, aims to “make it clear that Rwanda is a safe country for asylum seekers, and that people who have come to the UK illegally can be removed there swiftly”, according to the government website.

Following the Supreme Court’s ruling last month that the previous policy for deporting people to Rwanda violated domestic and international law, the bill aims to allow ministers to ignore injunctions by the European Court of Human Rights to stop flights taking off at the last minute. At the same time, it would also allow people to launch legal appeals to argue that they should be spared deportation.

As a result, Sunak is under pressure to take a tougher stance with the bill. Former Immigration Officer Robert Jenrick, who quit over the new policy proposal on Wednesday 6th December, said that Section Four of the bill, which would allow people to lodge challenges against their individual deportation to Rwanda, would mean “backlogs will likely build, and cases that would at best take months to resolve will be stayed considerably longer.” He called for a “bill that guarantees removal within days, not months, of arrival by blocking off individual challenges that would otherwise prevent that.”

Five Tory in faction rebel groups (The European Research Group, New Conservatives, Common Sense Group, Conservative Growth Group and Northern Research Group) are all considering voting against the bill at a third reading, if their views are not taken into account. This poses a stark threat to Sunak’s leadership.

Whether the bill will be killed off in the new year remains to be seen. For now, it heads into the committee stage, giving Tory MPs the chance to debate their views.