Storm Shadow and ATACMS and Oreshnik, Oh My: Missiles Are Ramping up Pressure in Ukraine
Photo courtesy: Donetsk Regional Military Civil Administration via Wikipedia
In a meeting on September 6, President Volodymyr Zelensky renewed calls for NATO to allow Ukraine to launch long-range missiles into Russia. After months of deliberation, President Biden issued a green light for the use of US-made missiles on 17 November. The call followed the 1000th day of the war, as well as the deployment of nearly 11,000 North Korean troops in the occupied Kursk region. It also came after an earlier announcement by then-newly elected PM Keir Starmer that the UK might allow for the use of British-made missiles launched into Russian territory. But what are these missiles, and what makes them so important?
With a range of 250km, UK-manufactured Storm Shadow missiles (and their French-made SCALP-EG equivalents) are launched from an aircraft and fly at the speed of sound. They employ terrain-mapping technology to stay below radar, before detonating 450-kg conventional warheads. Expensive, at US$1million each, they’re primarily used against high-value targets such as hardened bunkers and ammunition stores, and in conjunction with cheaper drone attacks.
On May 11, Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace announced that the UK was supplying Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, to be used within its own territory only. Because they rely on US-owned cartographic data, Washington has a government veto on their sale to any country, likely exerting its power to require Ukraine not to launch the weapons into Russian territory until recently.
Ukraine has used the missiles successfully in a series of attacks throughout the war, including a June 2023 attack on the Chongar Strait railway bridge and a September 2023 attack against the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. The latter led to 34 deaths, including the commander of the fleet, and injuries to at least 100 Russian personnel, according to the Ukrainian military.
After the US announcement, Kyiv launched Storm Shadow missiles into Russian territory for the first time on 20 November. The US, UK, and Ukrainian governments have refused to comment, but BBC Verify has confirmed the use of these missiles in the attack.
Similar to Storm Shadow, the US-made ATACMS are supersonic tactical ballistic missiles, manufactured by Lockheed Martin. They can fly up to 300km, cost $1.5million each, and carry a 225-kg warhead. They were first used in the Gulf War and are currently being phased out by the US military in favor of a slimmer missile that can travel over 400km. The day after the US announcement, Kyiv used ATACMS against a Russian arsenal in the Bryansk region on Ukraine’s northern border.
President Vladimir Putin has promised retaliatory action against the West, stating that because Ukraine does not have the military capabilities to manufacture and launch such missiles, the use of them signifies active NATO participation in the war. Intelligence, security, and defense expert Justin Crump disputed this to the BBC: ‘[if] that claim were true, then Russia would have made it more clear…when the weapons were first supplied.’ However, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden, who advises on issues of national security, is preparing to give a speech to the NATO Cyber Defence Conference, in which he will warn that Russia may soon carry out cyber-attacks on Ukrainian allies, including the UK.
Russia has also responded with missile attacks of its own. On November 22, Moscow launched an airstrike against Dnipro, a major military-industrial site used to manufacture missiles and other armaments. In a TV address hours after the strike, Putin announced that it had tested a new intermediate-range missile called the Oreshnik. Travelling at 10 times the speed of sound, the missiles could successfully bypass Ukraine’s US-built Patriot defence missile system. However, Ukrainian intelligence says that the new weapon is a type of intercontinental ballistic missile known as Kedr, and Western officials deny that it was an ICBM at all.
Despite the impressive military capabilities of the Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles, military analysts argue that it may be too late for them to have a significant impact on the war. As Kyiv lobbied Washington to allow them to launch into Russia, Moscow prepared by moving bombers, missiles, aircraft, and infrastructure out of range. Additionally, Ukraine must face concerns over shortages. The UK has not refreshed its LACM stockpile since 2003, and the US has stopped manufacturing ATACMS.
Nevertheless, the new use of these missiles may enable Ukraine to gain back control of the Russian-occupied Kursk region, and the Institute for the Study of War identified 245 Russian military targets still within range. These include bases where aircraft used to carry glide bombs are stationed, the destruction of which would ease some of the aerial bombardment that Ukraine faces. The largest impact, however, will come in the shape of the additional time and cost that will take Russia to control its air defenses: commands from further into Russia, rather than closer to the border, may provide the Ukrainian military with a greater chance of defense against attacks. And if Ukraine can gain back control of the Kursk region, they would push Russian staging areas even further away, causing Russian troops to travel hours to reach the front.
The Prime Minister has defended the sale of Storm Shadow missiles and condemned Putin’s claim of a global war as ‘irresponsible rhetoric.’ Historically, the sale of armaments has not amounted to a declaration of war, but it has often signaled an escalation in conflict, whether that’s on a regional or international basis.