Strife and stagnation in the Republican Party

Photo Courtesy: Buggs’ Photography (via Flickr)

With just over a year to go until the 2024 US Presidential Elections, the Republican party is anything but prepared. This article aims to explain why Republicans find themselves in an extremely difficult position. 

For a start…

As of October 2023, Donald Trump remains the only former US president to face criminal charges. He currently holds the unwanted record of having four indictments to his name. 

Mr Trump’s trial over hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels, including a payment of $130,000 dollars, is set to coincide with the Republican Primaries in March 2024. But the two trials of greatest importance for the coming year will be, first, charges brought in wake of the 6th January Capitol riot and attempted insurrection and, second, charges against attempts to overturn the 2020 Presidential Election in Georgia. Both trials could lead to significant time behind bars, should the former president be found guilty. 

Many will recall the scenes on the 6th January 2021, where Mr Trump addressed his supporters in D.C and demanded that they converge on the Capitol: “if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore”. Many Senators, including Utah Senator Mitt Romney, came dangerously close to being assaulted by the coming insurrectionists. Since then, 485 individuals have received a criminal sentence with a further 113 rioters being sentenced to home detention for variable amounts of time. Mr Trump’s trial is scheduled for the 4th March 2024, where charges include conspiracy to defraud the US and obstructing an official proceeding.  

Many will also be aware that Mr Trump was indicted for state racketeering and conspiracy charges over his attempts to overturn the 2020 election result in the state of Georgia. In a now infamous call from the 2nd January 2021, Mr Trump demanded that Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger find “11,780 votes”, explaining “We won the election and it’s not fair to take it away from us like this”. Both Mr Trump and multiple Republican operatives attempted to pressure state officials to breach voting machines and put forward “alternative electors”, in apparent subversion of the democratic will of the state’s people. 

All is not quiet on the House front

On the 5th October 2023, Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy was ousted from his position in a 216-210 vote. This came after an 11th-hour deal was struck to avoid a government shutdown and ensure pay for all government employees through to the 17th November.

The vote was forced through by Republican representative Matt Gaetz, a week after he first threatened a vote. It followed Mr Gaetz’s previous attempts to block Mr McCarthy from receiving the Speaker role, a rivalry which sparked 15 rounds of voting. Speculation remains as to the exact reasoning why Gaetz chose this moment to lead a revolt, but one lasting rumour around D.C suggests that Mr Gaetz is preparing to make a run for Governor of Florida in 2026, and that this latest move places him in a powerful position to take the Republican Nomination from current Governor Ron DeSantis. 

Over the past couple of weeks, North Carolina Representative Patrick McHenry has been Speaker pro tempore. At the time of publishing, Mr McHenry is still in charge of the House, but he presides over a difficult position. There is little precedent on how to navigate such a situation, with Mr McCarthy being the first speaker to be removed in the middle of a congressional term.

Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana was initially thought to be front runner for the next speakership. Yet, despite beating Ohio congressman Jim Jordan by 113-99 in a secret ballot, he failed to amass the required support to take his bid to a vote on the floor of the House. Mr Scalise cited individual “agendas” as the reasons for this, stating that the Republican party needed to “focus on what this country [United States] needs”. Following Mr Scalise’s departure from the race, Mr Jordan has become the front runner, but he remains short of the 217 votes necessary to take on the role of speaker. 

Ron DeSanctimonious

Outside of such political theatrics in the courts and the House, eight other individuals are seeking the Republican Nomination for Presidency. Whilst others have made their bid, including Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley, the most prominent figure still in the race is current Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis. The former Trump supporter, now rival, sits on around 13% of the national vote. 
But Mr DeSantis, too, is embroiled in a legal fight, in his case with Walt Disney World’s legal team. In March 2022, Mr DeSantis passed the Parental Rights in Educational bill, commonly referred to as the “Don’t Say Gay” bill. This makes efforts to prevent any child from having privacy or anonymity over their sexual orientation and gender identity, by requiring schools to inform the parents of children. Walt Disney World publicly opposed the state law, which also prevented lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity. As one of the largest employers within the state, their opposition became headline news in multiple media outlets. 

Angered by this, Mr DeSantis retaliated by removing the special powers Walt Disney World had enjoyed in their Orlando based theme park. In response, the latter filed a lawsuit stating that Mr DeSantis had violated the company's first amendment rights. Legal representatives for Mr DeSantis have tried to have the lawsuit dismissed but have been unsuccessful, as Disney continue their efforts to prove they received unfair treatment which violates their expression of free speech.   

Conclusion

In summary, then, the lead Republican candidates for the Presidential Nomination are facing legal troubles, and no candidate seems able to capitalise on their issues. The House also remains unable to stand behind a single speaker due to infighting and multiple pieces of legislation. And Supreme Court Challenges, including the overturning of Roe v. Wade, face election defeats in many key battlegrounds. Unless drastic changes occur, it seems inevitable that 2024 will be another year of strife and stagnation for the Republican party.