Syria’s Future: Can the Region Find Stability After Assad?

Photo Courtesy: Ahmed Akacha via Pexels

As Syria emerges from the shadow of Bashar al-Assad's regime, hopes for a better future are tempered by the immense challenges ahead. For over a decade, Syrians have endured a brutal civil war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, displaced millions, and left the nation in ruins. The end of Assad’s rule certainly marks a cause for celebration, but finding their footing will require caution and foresight.

A new chapter for Syria could open the door for millions of displaced Syrians to return home and begin rebuilding their lives. However, with rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), moving in to take control of Damascus with ease, it’s important to keep in mind their origins as an Al-Qaeda affiliate as the implications on Syria’s diplomatic position can be severe. If the Middle East’s history has taught us anything, it’s that transitions from authoritarian rule are fraught with danger, and missteps could plunge the country into chaos. 

Moreover, its proximity to the ongoing war on Gaza is only bound to complicate this period further. With Israel to the southwest and the enduring interest of Western powers – primarily the US – Syria's geopolitical situation adds another layer of complexity. Assad’s downfall has prompted Prime Minister Netanyahu to seize the demilitarised buffer zone along the Syrian border and has already carried out over 400 airstrikes. The new regime will have to navigate such a powerful regional actor seeking to take advantage of Syria as many external players are likely to want to influence Syria's transition, ensuring that stability will not come easily. 

Another priority for this transitional phase must be to curb the influence of Islamist groups. These factions have steadily amassed power in the chaotic vacuum left by the civil war, filling the gaps where state authority has collapsed. It is important to acknowledge that not all Islamist factions are inherently detrimental to Syria’s future - some have provided vital services and stability in areas abandoned by the state. However, groups with extremist ideologies, such as HTS and the Islamic Front, pose a significant barrier to stability. Primarily, they risk alienating international allies – mainly Western powers – who are wary of supporting a regime dominated by extremist factions. Without a robust plan to quell these extremist voices, Syria risks giving way to a new era of despotism, further perpetuating the cycle of repression that has already devastated the nation.  

Yet, despite complications, many argue that even a challenging path to stability would be an improvement over the oppression and violence of the Assad regime. It’s more so a matter of approaching the region’s fragility with careful planning and through developing rapport with international actors. 

Fortunately, a general framework for Syria’s future already exists. As outlined by the 2012 Geneva Communiqué, both the United Nations and the League of Arab States have previously endorsed the idea of a transitional government as a pathway to stability. Such an interim government would serve as a bridge, guiding Syria from the end of Assad’s despotic rule to a more representative and inclusive system of governance. With backing from foreign ministers including from the UK, France, and several MENA nations, this initial stage may be within reach. 

This blueprint, however, is only one small step towards stability in the region. The success of a post-Assad Syria will depend on several factors.

First, international actors must cooperate in supporting Syria’s recovery, rather than pursuing competing agendas that could exacerbate divisions. Ideally, the US should allow Syria the time to settle in after their sharp change in government despite their vested interests in the region and their allyship with Israel. This backing could provide the necessary diplomatic and security frameworks to survive this pivotal transition. However, whether the upcoming Trump Administration will deem Syria’s position as of American interest is still undetermined. Given his recent statements on the conflict, that may not be likely.

Second, Syrians can also learn from their neighbouring nation, Iraq. Although Iraq’s removal of Saddam Hussein is generally painted in a negative light, due to its violent nature, their implementation of the Kurdistan region model has proven effective in granting Kurds some degree of autonomy. By adopting Iraq’s successes and learning from their mistakes–such as the importance of incremental success rather than quick fixes–a brighter future may be possible. 

While the road to stability will undoubtedly be long, Syrians have demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout the conflict. With measured steps, Damascus has a rare opportunity to become a genuine – albeit late – success story of the Arab Spring after 13 years of violence and struggle. The stakes are high, but Syria’s prospects are a glimmer of hope in what has been a dark chapter of the region’s history.