The Michigan Primaries: A Warning for November
Massachusetts Primary Ballots, 2016 // Photo Courtesy: Wikimedia Commons
As of February 28, the ballots for the Michigan Democratic Primary have been counted and registered. This bears great importance, as Michigan is a key swing state that candidates court to secure their positions in the general election. Support for the presumed Democratic nominee in the state gauges the chances of broader, country-wide support.
There has been, however, an unexpected development this year. Primary elections are held by state and, within each state, by party in order to tally how many delegates will support each candidate at their respective national party conventions. This process determines who each party chooses as their eventual Presidential nominee.
Incumbent and presumed Democratic nominee President Joe Biden received 81% of Michigan Democrats’ votes. Although expected for an incumbent, this win was overshadowed by the surprising 13% popularity of the ‘uncommitted’ option. The next actual candidate, Marianne Williamson, received only 3%. For context, this means 100,000 people voted not for any candidate, nor even really for any party, but rather against all of them.
When the top option is the sitting President, such results are highly unusual. The last time this many people voted ‘uncommitted’ in Michigan was to protest Barack Obama’s 2008 exclusion from the primary ballot. Even more unusual is that this 13% was achieved by a single group, ‘Listen to Michigan,’ representing primarily Arab and Muslim activists who have encouraged Michigan Democrats to vote ‘uncommitted’ in order to change American policy towards Israel.
Speaking with NPR on the group’s behalf, strategist Abbas Alawieh stated that their ‘hope is that a long-overdue ceasefire agreement is reached as soon as humanly possible,’ referencing calls for peace in the Gaza Strip that have been rejected by the United States in recent months. Their website, which opens on the slogan ‘Tell Biden, count me out for genocide,’ goes further: ‘President Biden’s been a successful candidate in the past…but right now he’s not representing the vast majority of Democrats who want a ceasefire and an end to our government’s unconditional weapons funding of Israel.’
This has unsettled political analysts within the Democratic Party. The November presidential election looms closer, heightening worries that former president Donald Trump – the presumed Republican nominee – could again gain power. The Democrats’ response has been to close ranks and try to stifle open dissent by positioning Biden as the lesser evil to Trump, as they did in 2020.
With many voters disapproving of Biden’s foreign and domestic policies, such maneuvering falls flat. The unexpected success of ‘Listen to Michigan,’ while not taking the ballot entirely by storm, brings on yet another headache for his campaign strategists. They are all asking the question: is another Trump presidency inevitable with this open animosity towards Biden?
In answering, we must address what facts we have. Reuters’ polls show a 58% disapproval rate for Biden, roughly concurring with FiveThirtyEight/ABC News’ 54%. In contrast, Trump’s disapproval rating from the latter site is only 51.7%. This could be an issue for the Biden campaign, in that Trump clearly leads Biden in popularity – if only by a few points, but that’s sometimes all that is needed to push a candidate over the line and into the White House.
In the other primaries that have already occurred, however, Trump isn’t faring as well as expected. The only four Republican state primaries held show that Trump’s wins have not been supermajorities except in Nevada (with 99.2%). In Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, he won with only 51%, 54%, and 59% respectively. In the Democratic primaries held so far, on the other hand, Biden won South Carolina and Nevada with 96.2% and 89.3% respectively, barring a 63.9% outlier in New Hampshire.
From this, we can surmise that Biden more easily wins over Democratic voters than Trump does his fellow Republicans. This is likely due in part to Biden’s relatively uncontroversial presidency. Trump, however, has already battled waves of dissent from his own party atop lawsuits and accusations regarding the 2021 Capitol Riot and revelations about his mishandling of classified documents.
While current policy towards the war in Gaza has galvanized some internal opposition to a renewed Biden presidency, the fruits of their labor have not yet been borne out. This does not discount possible growth for that opposition, however, as seen in Michigan. New developments in subsequent Democratic primaries may seriously threaten Biden’s campaign and split the Democratic party upon the rocks of its own time-worn policies.
The full extent of Democratic reaction is unclear. It is possible that their strategists will try to ignore their changing situation and continue according to plan. Given the extent of intra-party dissatisfaction with Biden’s administration, this will likely affect them negatively. Biden cannot afford to ignore ‘Listen to Michigan’s success, for if he does he will only sow further resentment. November is coming, and to turn a blind eye to these signs is to walk into a blizzard wearing only a business suit.