Trump’s Re-election: From the Outside Looking In

Photo Courtesy: Conectas

‘It’s the economy, stupid!’

After November 5th, on this side of the world, Europeans everywhere have expressed their incomprehension and disbelief. The “blame game” has begun, with tweets along the lines of “America, do better” circulating online, clearly targeting the “stupidity” of 76,075,314 Americans. Obviously, this take is over-simplistic. And while unpicking the deeply complex web of factors that contributed to this outcome is perhaps beyond our scope here, there is one key detail too often unacknowledged by Europeans: the American people’s lived experiences of a socio-economic crisis. 

In September, Gallup found that 54% of voters trusted Donald Trump more with the economy. And this panned out stunningly at the ballot box: of the 32% of voters who identified the economy as their top issue, a whopping 80% voted Trump. In a country where the top 10% of earners own nearly two-thirds of the nation’s wealth, voters unsurprisingly prioritise the economy. Cost of living is approximately 9.3% higher than in the United Kingdom excluding rent, as healthcare costs are unmanageable and affordable housing is in crisis. Concurrently, inflation rates have been consistently higher for the lowest-income households since 2006.

Life is no longer affordable, and when feeding one’s family becomes a Herculean task, it is only natural for anger and disillusionment to stew against those in charge. “Bidenomics’” promise of better living conditions from strong GDP growth has failed to reach the average American’s pocket. 

Consequently, those with annual income above $100,000 voted majority Harris, and below, majority Trump. If they don’t start prioritising material grievances, Democrats in the US, and mainstream parties in Europe, will keep losing to the deceptive rhetoric of populists, whose empty promises will only continue to entrap and mislead voters. And, so, Kamala Harris, vice president to the most pro-union White House in American history, lost to the infamously, aggressively, avidly anti-labour ex-president.

The sad truth is that the electorate to whom Trump has made these grand promises, will suffer the most from his policies. Trump’s infamous 2017 tax cuts will result in less than $500 in tax savings for 60% of Americans in 2025. The top 1% will save $60,000. Trump further claims that the minimum wage was “too high” and has expressed support for firing striking workers.

These realities do not excuse the extremist, exclusionary bigotry fuelling certain Trump votes. However, for those who take for granted Europeans’ comparatively privileged access to affordable healthcare, education, housing, and countless other public goods, recontextualisation of actual living conditions is essential to understanding the full picture.

And here in the UK, this lesson resonates, for Labour must now face the hard truth that however stable, professional and progressive your government looks on paper, voters will still show you the door if you do not materially improve standards in their lives. One of Starmer’s 5 missions for Britain is to have the highest growth in the G7. The US had the highest growth in the G7 last year and voters’ top issue was still the economy. Reeves talks of making Britain attractive to businesses and investors. The US has over 800 billionaires, but 9 in 10 Americans are still concerned about the current cost of living in the United States. 

We Brits and Europeans often sneer at the American voter base, assuring ourselves that no matter what ridiculous things happen this side of the Atlantic, we would never allow such demagoguery to take the reins. But the issues that drive Trump voters, whether it be immigration or the price of fuel, are exactly what incense a rising number of British voters. Just look at the number of Reform votes at the last election. The far right thrives on the anger and disaffection of ordinary voters. The only way to quell their anger, and to defeat the threat of the far-right is to provide concrete and material solutions and improvements. 

Democratic Youth: Keeping the Conversation Alive

Another fact that Europeans often fail to recognise, are the efforts of Democratic youth in the run-up to the election. Americans at the individual and collective levels did a tremendous amount that goes well beyond just one election, and they should not go unnoticed.

In late 2023, protests over Palestine began to sweep the country, bringing collegiate politics to the national stage in a way that hasn’t happened since the Vietnam protests. Gen Z student activists joined a long legacy of protest on American college campuses, and while the efficacy can be debated, it can’t be questioned that the protests demanded that politicians hear the youth voice. Young Americans have become an essential part of the Democratic Party. 

After the election, anti-Trump protests broke out in New York in the Protect our Futures March and in DC, outside the Heritage Foundation’s headquarters. The Women’s March has pledged a protest for January 18th. Nonprofits such as the NWCL, ACLU, NYCLU, Democracy Forward, and Plan C, have all pledged their commitment to fighting Trump’s policies and their support to those who will be impacted by his administration. 

Democratic state governments declared their ongoing commitment to fight Trump’s proposed policy initiatives. The NYTimes reported that many state governments began to pass legislation protecting women’s rights and immigration as early as 2023. Two days after the election, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California called a legislative special session for December “to safeguard California values and fundamental rights in the face of an incoming Trump administration”, and Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York has put forward her “Empire State Freedom Initiative”, which will protect her state from Trump’s administrative agenda. 

The fight for American democracy was not lost on 5 November. To concede would be to dismiss the extraordinary efforts of Democrats across the country both before the election and now. There are many young people who feel betrayed by their country, and their response has (justifiably) been anger. But as we move into a Republican-controlled government, discourse becomes the primary mode of working as the party in opposition. Slamming the door in the face of Republicans, dismissing them all as racist misogynists, is counterproductive. As difficult as it is, we have to stoke conversation with the youth that has sided with a hateful, exclusionary ideology rooted in anachronistic values. 

History says that at least one chamber of Congress should flip during the mid-terms, so Democrats everywhere need to welcome swing voters back to their party. This starts on the individual level and with conversation. 

X and its chokehold on the Republican electorate

Yet to be faced by Europeans in the same propensity is the manipulation of public debate. Indeed, as the US’ enduring polarisation has reached an all time high, Elon Musk tightens his grip on America’s divisions and profits from them. 

Democrats waged their battle with virtually no social media platform in which to voice their agenda, X having become the haven of MAGA ideology. On the other hand, Meta (Instagram, Facebook) depoliticised its content, reducing the political debating arena to X once more.  

This left liberals to fend for themselves, in an ocean where misinformation and deep fakes are remunerated, and provocative claims are encouraged. Posts containing unfounded conspiracy theories on July assassination attempts spilt over from their homebase, X, to other social media sites, reaching an even wider audience.

USC research found that average daily hate speech on X nearly doubled in the first six months of Musk’s ownership. The dominant algorithm is rooted in sensationalist discourse, tapping into indignation, fear, resentment of others, and solitude. Polarisation is a complex phenomenon that sometimes feels inexplicable, and cannot be reduced to X. That being said, Elon Musk's $120 million spent on the election earned him the praise 'A star is born' from President-elect Donald Trump during his victory speech - confirming his role as Trumps’ spokesperson in the feeds of over 500 million users. 

Now that we have stressed their importance, let us reflect on where and how our conversations should take place. According to data compiled by Similarweb, more than 115 000 US users deactivated their X accounts on the day after the elections – perhaps refusing to be part of its plot to divide us?

A Call for Modesty: in Life, the Universe and Everything

This is an argument about intellectual modesty: the radical, almost awkward suggestion that you might not be right about everything all of the time. The cries ring out: "That's just not American!" Maybe not, but should it be?

Intellectual modesty is essential for democracy to function. Without a baseline of mutual respect among citizens, the whole project starts to crumble. Of course, the hostility is understandable. If you're a Democrat, it might feel as if the floor has fallen out from under you. Inflation is down, unemployment is low, and Biden has been plodding along quite reasonably; so what on Earth were voters thinking? How can there possibly be mutual respect when people are so stupid?

And if you're a Republican, count your blessings: America has just evaded the devilish clutches of wokeism by a hair's breadth. Perhaps flags will finally get a little less colourful, sticking to good ol' red, white, and blue. Thank the Lord, for reason has prevailed. 

Whatever your view, you’re wrong, or at least not entirely right. And that's okay. Democracy was never intended to be a battle of unwavering certainties, despite what X would have you believe. It’s supposed to be a conversation: messy, uncomfortable, and imperfect. 

Recognising this requires intellectual modesty: the humility to accept that the world is complex, policies involve trade-offs, and your opponents might have reached their terrible conclusions for reasons that, to them, make sense. This is hard, especially when their views seem abhorrent. But understanding the roots of those views, and the fears and frustrations which justify them, is the first step towards countering them effectively. 

Politics isn’t about facts; it’s about perspectives. It’s time to let go of the fantasy of objectivity, and consider a more modest proposal: less shouting, more listening. Less tribalism, more curiosity. It won’t solve inflation, the climate crisis, or the culture war overnight, but it will allow for genuine dialogue. It might even make democracy great again.