US Midterms - Unexpected Success for Democrats
Photo Courtesy: BBC
After predictions of a Republican “red wave” and huge losses for the Democratic party, the US midterm elections have come as a surprise to many. The Democrats have managed to regain their majority in the Senate and have suffered only minor losses in the House of Representatives, while votes in many states are still being counted. Joe Biden, the American president, emerged happy on Wednesday evening, as he claimed it “a good day for America”.
The president’s party, the Democrats, in this case, were expected to dramatically lose their grip on power in these elections, due to the growing alliance of independent voters with the Republican party. In the 2020 elections, moderate voters aligned strongly with the Democrats, helping to secure Biden’s electoral success. After rising inflation rates and multiple policy failures, it was argued that moderates had now moved to support Republican candidates, with many media outlets and Donald Trump beginning to predict a “red wave” of support spreading across the country as a result. However, abortion rights, originally sidelined by most Republicans and media outlets alike, proved to be a decisive influence on where moderate votes were going. In Pennsylvania, where Mehmet Oz (R) was defeated by John Fetterman (D), more voters claimed they turned out because of concerns for women’s reproductive rights than inflation.
In the US, national elections are held every two years, with all 435 House of Representative seats and a third of all 100 senate seats up for re-election. Presidential elections occur once every four years, thus a midterm election is held halfway through every presidential term.
Prior to these elections, the Democrats held the majority in both chambers of Congress, with 224 members in the House and 50 members in the Senate (218 and 51 seats are required to hold a majority in the House or the Senate, respectively). As it currently stands, the Democrats have regained 203 seats in the House and 50 seats in the Senate. However, as the deciding vote in the Senate is made by the Vice President, currently Kamala Harris (D), the Democrats have retained their majority, even if they lose the only remaining Senate race in Georgia. The Republicans have currently reached 211 seats in the House and 49 seats in the Senate.
Historically, it is rare for the president’s party to hold onto its control of either house in a midterm election. Only in rare cases of mass policy approval such as during FDR’s rollout of the “New Deal” or Bush Jr’s “War on Terror” have a president’s party been successful at retaining its grip on power in the midterms. The Democrats have thanked generation Z voters for turning out in similar numbers as in the 2020 elections, helping to minimise the impact of the “red wave”.
Votes are still rolling in and will not be conclusive for at least another week. The Senate race in Georgia is going to a runoff as no candidate received a majority, with a date set for the 6th of December. The incumbent, Senator Raphael Warnock (D), faces a challenge from the former professional American footballer, Herschel Walker (R), who is backed by Trump. In the wake of this largely unforeseen success for Democrats, Biden has announced his interest to run for a second presidential term in 2024. Donald Trump, the former president and member of the Republican party, had previously hinted at his desire to run again in 2024, however, as a result of the Republicans' failure this week, many party members are now claiming they cannot support him.