A vote for democracy: How the Polish people gave themselves hope
Photo Courtesy: Silar (via Wikimedia Commons)
If Poland was a nation at a crossroads, the Polish people have just turned towards a new era of democracy. Should a new government be successfully integrated, Poland’s recent elections could have lasting significance, both for Poland and on the broader European stage.
A record-breaking win
With a turnout of 74.25 per cent, and significant participation in particular from female and young voters, 21.5 million Poles voted in these historic elections. This was the highest turnout rate since the first free elections in the country in 1989. And on that occasion, inspired by the Solidarity Movement, a 62.7 per cent turnout saw the Polish people vote out communist rule.
Photo Courtesy: Silar (via Wikimedia Commons)
As covered previously at Pi, the parliamentary majority last week went to the opposition, with a collective 53.7 per cent of the vote. The Civic Coalition - led by former Prime Minister and European Council President Donald Tusk - The Third Way, and The Left have pledged to form a coalition government to oust the right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS). Together they have 248 seats, while PiS only has 194.
Why were these elections so important?
For the last eight years, Poland has been ruled under the watchful eye of PiS and its de facto leader, Jarosław Kaczynski. This was a period marked not just by a rightward shift in the nation's political compass, but by an increasing erosion of political freedom. Nationalism had surged. Public media was tightened and transformed into a government mouthpiece - take a look at Telewizja Polska (TVP). And, perhaps worst of all, PiS filled courts and the constitutional tribunal with their own supporters. In 2017, Poland was tried at the European Court of Justice because of laws PiS had introduced that gave politicians control over appointing judges.
The result was effectively a reign of intimidation. Adam Bodnar, Poland’s human-rights ombudsman, has said that: “If a judge has a case on his desk with some political importance, he should be afraid.” And this fear spread to the wider public, not only due to such corruption, but also because of several other policies PiS implemented. Since a ruling in October of 2020, for example, Poland has had a near-complete ban on abortion. This remains the case, despite the fact that support for allowing abortion up to the 12th week of pregnancy had already risen to 70% in Poland by November 2022. In May of 2023, for the fourth year in a row, Poland was also found to be the worst EU country in which to be gay.
Photo Courtesy: Silar (via Wikimedia Commons); Translation: ‘FREE MEDIA’
This is why these elections were so important for many Polish people, and why turnout was so high. In a historic moment, the majority of Poles stood up to such intimidation and took to the polls to chart a new course for their nation. The opposition’s success represents the promise of a political landscape that is more centrist and inclusive. They pledge to foster media freedom, to reintroduce the proper rule of law and independence of the judiciary, and to undo some of the contentious policies that have stirred controversy both at home and abroad.
Good news for the EU
Equally, the importance of this transition stretches beyond Poland’s borders. The results of Poland’s elections seem to counter a growing tendency among the country’s neighbours to hold more ambivalent ties with the European Union - examples include Robert Fico’s Slovakia and Viktor Orbán’s Hungary. Until very recently, the Polish government shared this attitude. In addition to aforementioned violations of rule-of-law, for example, PiS’s conservative approach would often stand out from the EU’s migration policy.
The possibility of renewing democratic principles in Poland will also renew hope for a more united Europe. Poland's position as a key player in the EU is primed for a resurgence, especially with Mr Tusk at its helm. The leader of The Civic Coalition has already travelled to meet the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, in order to access the €100bn of funds that had been blocked from Poland because of rule-of-law violations. The European Union, too, stands to benefit from a Poland that aligns more closely with EU values and priorities.
Photo Courtesy: Silar (via Wikimedia Commons)
Will hope turn into reality?
After the positivity of these elections, expectations are understandably high. Poles are starting to believe that the opposition’s promise of a healthier democracy will come to fruition. At the same time, the stakes are high and the future is not certain.
The new coalition will have to navigate difficult challenges in addition to undoing PiS’s various policies, most notably deciding how to tackle Poland’s growing debt and how to re-engage with the war in Ukraine - after PiS controversially decided to end arms support following various trade disputes. It will also be a challenge in itself to run such a coalition effectively, especially with PiS as the new opposition.
PiS is known to be a party with many tricks up its sleeves. During the recent elections, for example, the ruling party ran a simultaneous referendum asking questions such as whether people agree with “the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa”. This was a clear attempt to try and boost turnout among PiS supporters. Now, Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, has said he will not convene a new parliament until nearly a month after the elections, further delaying the installation of a new government. It is also worth remembering that 35.4 per cent of voters did opt in favour of PiS.
In the end, these historic elections represent more than just a political process. They were a moment of profound significance, a crossroads where the majority of Polish people spoke clearly and gave themselves hope for a new direction. Now it remains to be seen how successfully a new government will turn those hopes into reality.