Brazil’s Presidential Elections: Are Brazilians in for another Bolsonaro Bombshell?

Posters canvassing the two lead candidates for Brazil’s Presidential Election

Source: BBC

On October 2nd, the Brazilian Presidential Elections provided a substantial shock: Jair

Bolsonaro, the ill-reputed “Brazilian Trump”, got a second wind. Bolsonaro, the incumbent

Conservative President, significantly outperformed expectations. Despite the polls accurately

predicting his main adversary, former president and leader of Brazil’s centre-left Workers’

Party, Luiz Ignacio “Lula” da Silva, to be the frontrunner, the polls vastly overestimated the

margin separating the two candidates. What was predicted to be an insurmountable

double-digit difference shrunk to a mere 5 points with Bolsonaro receiving 43 percent of the

vote and Lula, 48.

Perhaps more crucial, however, was Lula’s failure to reach the 50% threshold which polls

suggested would be a fait accompli. In Brazil, if no candidate garners an absolute majority, a

run-off election is held between the two frontrunners. This decisive second round is

scheduled to take place on October 30th giving the candidates ample time to bolster their

campaign, and compromise or otherwise double-down on policy proposals to win over the

electorate. Bolsonaro, who seems only to have been emboldened by the first round results,

has opted for the latter. Following this first round, and confident that he would win, he

declared that “only God” could remove him from the Presidency, and that would go on to

win the elections.

While the polls still predict a sizable Lula victory, it’s worth asking how Bolsonaro shocked

pollsters and can he do it again?

Brazil’s current head of state is far from being the country’s favourite politician. An IPEC poll

conducted in August 2022 showed that around 57 percent of the Brazilian population

disapproved of Bolsonaro’s first mandate. This disapprobation is no doubt rooted in his lack

of transparency, and his incredibly divisive and controversial opinions and policies. For

instance, Bolsonaro who had promised to tackle corruption, going so far as to proclaim

himself “incorruptible”, ultimately found himself the target of allegations of serious financial

irregularities in July 2021, which led to the opening of a still ongoing investigation.

Furthermore, the implementation and proposed implementation of some of his more

controversial policies have been met with fierce disagreement, anger and outright protest.

These policies included his enabling of the displacement of the Amazon rainforest’s

indigenous communities, his hardline anti-abortion stance, his support for easing firearm

regulations, as well his perceived support for the erosion of LGBTQ+ rights, freedom of

speech, and freedom of religion. Finally, Bolsonaro has also questioned Brazil’s membership

in organisations like the World Health Organisation from which he has threatened to remove

Brazil on multiple occasions as he considered it as a “partisan political organisation”. Such a

move which would only inflame its current health crisis has not been met with much

support.

So how does Bolsonaro still remain relatively popular and why did the polls get it so wrong?

A first explanation for Bolsonaro’s supposedly shocking support can be found in the Brazilian

population’s scepticism and lack of trust towards the Workers’ Party. In 2016, the Lava Jato

or “Car Wash” Operation found more than 150 politicians, including many elected Workers’

Party members and Lula himself; consequently the Lula and his party lost a substantial part

of their electorate. And, despite Lula being ultimately absolved – notwithstanding the

controversies surrounding the circumstances around both his imprisonment and his

absolution – the Lava Jato Operation had a profound effect on the Brazilian electorate. Thus,

to the problem of government corruption, Bolsonaro’s anti-system campaign seemed, to

many, a potential solution.

Another reason for Bolsonaro’s unexpectedly high results is the fact that ‘Bolsonarism’ –

Bolsonaro’s eponymous ideology – has been resolutely under-estimated by the polls and

even the Brazilian population itself. Much like with Trump’s unexpected victory, a “shy voter”

effect may be at play. As highlighted by French journalist Lamia Oualalou, “Bolsonarism is

way more powerful than we think”, and “[...] is very much anchored in Brazilian politics”.

This can for instance be witnessed in the results of the concurrent legislative elections;

regardless of who is elected president, a right-wing majority will lead Brazil’s congress.

Other explanations include the fact that Bolsonaro is very close to the Brazilian Church – an

important consideration in a country where 65 percent of the population is Catholic – as

well as his willingness to integrate rural areas to the political life of the country, which has

been left out of the Workers’ Party’s programme for instance. There is also the fact that, for

many Brazilians, economic growth is more crucial than issues of climate change or social

justice.

That being said, Lula is still the bookies’ favourite. International markets and investors have

responded positively to the first round-results. They foresee a Lula victory but only after a

moderation of his economic policies to capture a wider share of the vote and make up for

the tight margins in the first round.

Ultimately, however, if there’s one thing that has coloured the political landscape of Europe

and the Americas in the last decade it’s dodgy polls and political upsets, especially when it

comes to shock right-wing populist victories. Such was the story of Brexit, Trump, and even

Bolsonaro’s original election to the Brazilian presidency. It’s therefore worth keeping a close

eye on this upcoming second round. Brazilians, expect nothing and be prepared for

everything!