Civil War in Sudan: Another round of ceasefire talks falls through
Photo Courtesy: Henry Wilkins/VOA (via Wikimedia Commons)
The ongoing Sudanese Civil War has produced possibly the largest displacement crisis in the world today. Yet, despite reports of another potential ceasefire in December 2023, no progress has been made towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict. After a meeting in Djibouti, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) announced that it had secured a commitment to implement a ceasefire, only for the Sudanese parties to then pull out of further negotiations.
The current war erupted in mid-April 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces led by General al-Burhan and the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. Both sides have been accused of war crimes but while the army has denied these allegations, Hemedti has reportedly apologised for transgressions and promised to hold perpetrators accountable. The RSF has gained further military advantages over recent weeks so while fighting is ongoing, it is unclear whether and when these pledges will be upheld.
Sudan has a turbulent history of internal conflict, dating back to its independence in 1956. The division between the wealthier, Muslim-majority north and the less developed, Christian-dominated south has resulted in two previous civil wars and, ultimately, the secession of the south into the newly established Republic of South Sudan in 2011. It was during this conflict that the Rapid Support Forces emerged as the most prominent, majority-Arab paramilitary group. They then graduated to the role of border guards, mercenaries in the Yemeni war and committed mass atrocities in the Darfur war of 2003, which the International Criminal Court has labelled a genocide.
The long-standing dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir - which saw the strict implementation of sharia law and persecution of religious minorities - came to an end in 2019, following the joint coup of the then-allied military and the RSF militia. They founded the Transitional Sovereignty Council together with civilian representatives, to set up democracy according to popular demand. After the exclusion of elected prime minister Hamdok, however, the army and Hemedti’s RSF came to their own deal in 2022 detailing a two-year transition plan to civilian leadership and elections.
The plan was widely rejected by the public, due to its lack of accountability measures for the security forces and their continued influence over state powers post-transition. In addition to the violent crackdown on protesters, tensions between the two groups soon became apparent, mainly over issues such as the division of power between al-Burhan and Hemedti, the timeline of the transition and the proposed integration of the RSF militia into the armed forces. The ensuing armed conflict devastated the capital city of Khartoum and the surrounding area, while also reigniting ethnic tensions in Darfur. According to RSF chief Hemedti, who had accumulated massive wealth by seizing gold mines during the RSF’s various campaigns, the violence broke out due to the influence of former President al-Bashir’s loyalists within the army.
In terms of external influences on the civil war, Hemedti and the RSF have ties to the Russian Wagner Group and support from the United Arab Emirates, owing to his reputation for pushing back against Islamists. The army on the other hand is backed by Egypt, which sees the general as the most likely guarantor of its interests. Furthermore, a quad of countries – namely the US, the UK, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – has taken an active role in attempting to mediate between the parties in Sudan. So far, diplomatic efforts have proven ineffective.
Meanwhile, this fast-unfolding conflict has left an estimated 7 million people either internally or internationally displaced, in a humanitarian crisis which has been further exacerbated by outbreaks of cholera and a severe lack of access to healthcare and other basic needs. In early December 2023, the UN Security Council also voted to terminate the mandate of the UN Integrated Transitional Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). This decision came despite concerns from member states over the security situation, but the Council ultimately decided to comply with calls from the Sudanese military government pressuring for withdrawal, citing the UN mission’s failure to “meet expectations”.
With international support dwindling and pledges for de-escalation continuously ignored, this conflict which has claimed more than ten thousand lives to date is no closer to resolution.