COP28: A Missed Lifeline for Small Islands Battling Climate Change

Image courtesy of Fridays for Future Mauritius

As the first day of COP28 drew to a close, there was a celebratory buzz in the air. After decades of ideation and discussion, the Loss and Damage Fund had finally been officially established. With the aim of providing financial assistance to countries most affected by climate change and climate-related disasters, the fund was praised as a long-awaited breakthrough for vulnerable developing countries.

And yet, just a month later, on 15 January 2024, Cyclone Belal swept through Mauritius and the French island of La Réunion. Thousands of citizens were evacuated, thousands more were cut off from power supplies, and flash flooding submerged cars and buildings.

Far away from the hefty negotiating tables and fanfare of COP, this devastation underscores the sobering reality that Mauritius is grappling with. More importantly, it provides a telling and timely reminder of how climate negotiations and COP28 have failed an oft-overlooked victim – small island states.

Small island states are most impacted by climate change:

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are a special class of 39 states, including Mauritius. They share common characteristics like small population size, remoteness from international markets and fragile ecosystems, which make them especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Despite contributing less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, these states have disproportionately borne the brunt of climate-related disasters. From Cyclone Belal in Mauritius, to coastal flooding in low-lying states like Tuvalu, to destructive tropical storms in Fiji, climate change is wrecking irrevocable damage in vulnerable island-states. For example, Mauritius suffers an estimated US$110 million in losses from natural hazards every year. 

Notably, since 1991, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) has been calling on the Global North to financially compensate island-states for their climate-related loss and damages.

COP28 has let down small island states:

Despite this alarming backdrop, the cries of small island states went unheard at COP28. Perhaps the most telling indicator of its failure is that its very beneficiaries were not even present during its signing. AOSIS was noticeably absent when COP28’s Global Stocktake, which serves as a decisive assessment of the conference’s outcomes, was passed. AOSIS and Pacific Island representatives have expressed outrage and suggested that the exclusion was a deliberate move to silence the concerns of small island states.

Indeed, many of AOSIS’ calls to action were sidelined during the conference. AOSIS has long called for a global phasing out of fossil fuels, which it has identified as a primary driver of climate change and climate-related disasters. Yet, rather than mandating a strict “phasing down” of fossil fuels, the Stocktake instead imposes a much softer threshold of “phasing out” fossil fuels, and retreats back into vague platitudes like “reducing both consumption and production”. The Stocktake is also laden with seeming deliberate ambiguities, such as permitting an “abated” burning of coal and the use of natural gas as a “transitional fuel”. This outcome was birthed amidst several other related COP28 controversies – from being chaired by the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, to registering a record number of fossil fuel lobbyists. In her closing speech, AOSIS Lead Negotiator Anne Rasmussen slammed the Stocktake as a “litany of loopholes” that “does not advance beyond the status quo”. Other AOSIS representatives have likened the Stocktake to “signing our death certificate”, and a “betrayal of vulnerable communities… hijacked by corporate interests”. 

Furthermore, even the celebrated Loss and Damage Fund has fallen short of expectations. As of December, pledges to the Fund only amount to a disappointing $700m. This is less than 0.2% of the approximate $400b in yearly losses for developing countries. Similarly, small island-states are estimated to incur $56b in loss and damage by 2050. The Global North has been criticised for failing to meaningfully step up – for example, the UK’s pledge of $75 million is neither new nor additional, and was merely subtracted from its pre-existing climate finance pledges. This suggests that COP28 has failed small island states on two fronts – not only did it fail to produce a substantial and mitigative Stocktake, but it also failed to produce a sufficiently adaptive Loss and Damage Fund.

What lies ahead?

COP28 failed to produce any innovative or urgent outcomes. The Loss and Damage Fund will have to be actualised and distributed, while the impact of the Stocktake on fossil fuel companies remains to be seen. But one thing is clear – as demonstrated by Cyclone Belal, small island states will continue to face widespread devastation at the hands of the climate crisis. The longer the world waits to act, the greater the existential danger that grips vulnerable communities.